Jordanian caution regarding the Iranian regime

It becomes clear daily, amid the developments of the US-Israeli war on Iran, that Jordan’s cautious stance toward the current regime in Iran has always been well-founded. This Jordanian position has been held since the very first moments of the establishment of the “Islamic Republic” in Iran. In fact, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has been concerned with this major event for 47 years, given its repercussions across the entire region. It was not easy to ignore that the slogan raised by the “Islamic Republic” from its very first day was “exporting the revolution.”

The founder of the “Islamic Republic” did not see geographical boundaries for that republic. He wanted his revolution to extend to the countries of the region, foremost among them Iraq. The irony lies in the fact that the dream the founder of the “Islamic Republic” sought to achieve in Iraq was realized in 2003 by the Americans, who themselves, under George W. Bush’s administration, adopted the Iranian theory that it was necessary to change the course of governance in Iraq.

Saddam Hussein’s arrogance and ignorance of politics and regional and international balances led him to invade Kuwait in the summer of 1990. The Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, which lasted slightly less than seven months, can be considered a step toward rehabilitating the “Islamic Republic,” rather than continuing the effort to force it to face a unified Gulf front supported by Arab countries such as Jordan.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan played a role in enabling Iraq to withstand the Iranian offensive. Moreover, Jordan attempted to salvage what could be salvaged in the post-Saddam Hussein invasion of Kuwait phase, regardless of the damage and losses Jordan itself suffered on various fronts. In clearer terms, Jordan has never abandoned its regional role, particularly in maintaining caution toward Iranian policies in the region, especially after President George W. Bush decided to hand over Iraq on a silver platter in 2003. The American president did so without understanding or appreciating the impact this would have on the existing regional balance, of which Iraq was at the core and one of its pillars.

King Abdullah II’s recent Gulf tour was merely an expression of a cohesive Jordanian position that was not born overnight. The Jordanian monarch met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, then with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad in Doha. He subsequently traveled to Manama to meet Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa.

Notably, the tour came at a time when Iranian missiles and drones were targeting three peaceful countries that share historical, political, security, and military ties with Jordan. The Jordanian monarch demonstrated considerable courage in visiting Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Manama to affirm that the Hashemite Kingdom’s solidarity with these three countries is not merely rhetorical but also action-based.

It is no secret that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is itself subject to unjustified Iranian attacks. The only thing is that Iran believes that expanding the war serves its interests. The attacks on countries in the region, including the Sultanate of Oman, which sought from the outset to prevent the war, are merely evidence of an Iranian bankruptcy beyond which there is no bankruptcy. Where is the logic in expanding the war, an expansion that has led Arab Gulf states to begin issuing warnings to the “Islamic Republic”? This is what the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia did by expelling Iranian diplomats.

Iran, whether it realizes it or not, is pushing the Arab Gulf states toward greater cooperation among themselves and deeper coordination with Jordan, which has always been present on every front concerning Gulf security...

The recent Gulf tour by King Abdullah II was merely a continuation of a steadfast Jordanian policy built on caution in dealing with post-Shah Iran. Events have proven the correctness of the policy Jordan has adopted, demonstrating that caution in engaging with Iran is imperative.

Nothing has changed since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 up to the 2026 war. For its part, Jordan has not changed and remains a strategic depth for the Arab Gulf, in a conflict in which Iran launched far more missiles and drones against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states than it did against Israel...

Regardless of the outcomes of the current war, there will be a need to enhance coordination between regional states, between the GCC countries on one hand and Jordan on the other, especially since there is no guarantee that Iran will return to being a normal state, despite its significant curtailment.

There is no alternative to continuing Arab caution, in the Jordanian style, given the inability to predict the behavior of a president like Donald Trump, whose political rhetoric is sometimes marked by considerable recklessness and at other times by a deep understanding of Iranian politics, its history, and its potential danger to regional and international security...