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U.S. President Donald Trump is facing mounting pressure within the Republican Party after the Iran war caused a significant loss for the party in the midterm elections, while the conflict remains at a stalemate with no clear way out. The election results have placed Trump before two choices: either reach a “way out through negotiation,” or rush into “a more dangerous escalation.” As anticipation grows in the Middle East regarding the future of the conflict, Axios reported that U.S. officials said the American military is finalizing preparations for the possibility of resuming war against Iran, including sending additional military reinforcements to the region. A former Trump advisor told Axios, “Losing the midterm elections is one thing, but Trump doesn’t want to look like a loser twice.” The site added that this scenario has injected uncertainty into Trump’s next move, even among his closest aides. While Iranian officials have celebrated Trump’s electoral defeat, viewing it as evidence that they are winning the war, diplomats involved in mediation efforts and advisors to Trump told Axios that Iran’s boasting of victory could push the U.S. president back toward the option of war. Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for a short, intensive operation. Citing Pentagon officials and military leaders, it said that thousands of U.S. air and naval forces, deployed on more than 12 ships and at bases in the Middle East and the United States, are ready to resume major combat operations against Iran upon Trump’s order. The operation is likely to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and its missile and drone arsenals. Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin received Mohsen Rezaee, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, at the Kremlin, as part of political and security consultations between Moscow and Tehran. According to Russian media, the meeting followed a phone call between Putin and Rezaee on November 2, which covered developments in the current situation at the regional and international levels. The following are the details: The loss of Donald Trump’s Republican Party control over both the House and the Senate coincides with one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency: whether to resume intensive combat operations against Iran. The war that Vice President J.D. Vance said was the primary cause of the crushing defeat. The election results have confirmed Americans’ rejection of this war and demonstrated the severe backlash Trump could face if he decides to launch new major strikes. This political blow has further complicated the challenge Trump faces in ending a war he chose to wage. Trump has already signaled that he is in no hurry to resume bombing, despite the large-scale buildup of naval and air forces underway for weeks and continuing. Nevertheless, the possibility of launching an attack remains; former presidents who suddenly found themselves in a “lame-duck” position have turned to military options, partly to prove that their role as commander-in-chief remains unaffected. For example, George W. Bush intensified operations in Iraq after his party’s historic defeat in the 2006 midterm elections, although that occurred after replacing his Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, and fundamentally changing strategy.

However, the options available to Trump regarding Iran appear far more complex, and if he has a new strategy for managing this war, he and his aides have not yet disclosed it. In Tehran, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the results of the congressional elections reflected Americans’ rejection of war against his country, warning that Trump’s failure to respond to the message of American voters would lead to a “catastrophe.” Trump had acknowledged that the war was partly responsible for the heavy losses suffered by the Republican Party. But he stated that he did not regret his actions and that “he would do it again, because in the long run, Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon.” Multiple sources reported that Trump had been asking his close advisers whether Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth should remain in his post. Some White House aides expected that some of the blame for the Republican Party’s losses would be directed at Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Central Command, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine, who played major roles in directing the war against Iran. Nevertheless, the U.S. president said on Thursday that he intended to keep Hegseth as defense secretary, although he acknowledged that confirmation of a new defense secretary would be “easier” before Democrats take control of the Senate in January. With less restraint now, as Trump considers his next move, the risks could not be higher for Iran, the Middle East, and the global economy as a whole. Trump may be less restrained, but the conflict has now become more complex. Brian Hagerty, a former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, said, “There is reason to doubt that Trump will feel more restrained after suffering political damage.” Hagerty added that Trump might choose to maintain a status quo close to the current one, in which the U.S. military carries out “defensive strikes” while continuing a naval blockade of Iranian ports. For his part, David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in Trump’s first term, said another option would be to strike Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility and then withdraw, claiming to have inflicted sufficient damage on Iran’s nuclear program, and perhaps attempting to pursue a “formal agreement” that would restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and offer Iran some easing of sanctions, while postponing nuclear talks. Another option would be to follow through on Trump’s earlier threats to launch wide-scale attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Military reinforcements continue. If Vance’s view prevails, Trump will resume negotiations, hoping to reach a more stringent agreement than the Islamabad memorandum. But if Trump truly believes that force can make a difference, he could order a resumption of bombing. The United States has continued to dispatch heavy military transport aircraft to the Middle East. Fifty-four U.S. military air movements, including 50 heavy transport flights, were documented between October 27 and November 4, coinciding with reports of enhanced air defenses in the region. The Pentagon has not concealed its military reinforcements, perhaps hoping that demonstrating this massive show of force in the region would push Iran toward making concessions.

Pentagon officials and military commanders said today that thousands of U.S. Air Force and Navy personnel, stationed on more than 12 ships and at military bases in the Middle East, are on standby to resume large-scale combat operations against Iran upon receiving orders from President Trump. Officials told The New York Times that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for a short but intense operation, likely targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and its missile and drone arsenals. Both militaries have intensified their training, with aircraft flying over Iraq to practice offensive maneuvers. Additionally, the Pentagon and the U.S. State Department have withdrawn personnel from bases and facilities in the region as a precautionary measure.

Regionally, officials are closely monitoring what Trump will do next. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to pressure for new strikes against Iran, U.S. administration officials, particularly through diplomatic channels, have indicated that Trump may be more willing to resume strikes because he has little left to lose politically and could become more daring.

Regional talks to de-escalate tensions continue as Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Mohsen Rezaei. Talks are ongoing between Riyadh and Tehran amid escalating attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen against the Kingdom, with Qatar mediating between Washington and Tehran in an effort to end the wider conflict. The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported that Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan received a phone call from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, during which they discussed regional developments and efforts to enhance regional security. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Araghchi also discussed “recent developments” in diplomatic efforts with his Qatari counterpart. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart on developments in negotiations between Iran and the United States.

Meanwhile, the Omani Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart, reviewing the latest communications and talks aimed at reaching practical, political, and technical understandings that would lead to the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz without obstacles. The two ministers emphasized the importance of moving from a phase of de-escalation to one of consolidating sustainable understandings based on practical arrangements to ensure the safety of sea lanes and joint technical mechanisms to guarantee the flow of international trade and energy, thereby ending the state of war.

In a related development, the office of Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he met with Iranian National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei at the Kremlin. Also present in the Russian delegation were Yuri Ushakov, Kremlin foreign policy advisor, and Igor Kostyukov, head of military intelligence. Iranian media reported that Rezaei conveyed a message to Putin from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.