No Exception in History
The author Suad Fahd Al-Mugair discusses the idea of history repeating itself in wars and conflicts, citing historical examples such as Hitler, Gaddafi, and Saddam Hussein, and linking this to the current situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, warning against the illusion of exception that leads to disasters.
Translated by Qiyas from القبس — Original source
Although humans possess a historical memory that distinguishes them from other creatures, they often fail to leverage this memory. This happens to all of us, every day, on a personal level, as we repeat the mistakes of others as if our circumstances would be different, until history becomes almost a rerun of fallen nations, collapsed empires, disintegrated states, and senseless wars. The fall of the Roman Empire may not match the details of the fall of Al-Andalus, but there were common milestones that allowed for comparison: political fragmentation, internal conflicts, reliance on foreign powers, and imbalances of power were all fundamental factors in the collapse of the Roman Empire. These scenes and conditions were repeated among the Arabs of Al-Andalus, yet the lessons were not absorbed to prevent them.
The world believed that World War I, in 1914, would be short, but the arms race at the time, colonial competition, and the intertwining of military and political interests led to a war that lasted four years with enormous human losses. Nevertheless, the world did not learn a lesson from history; rather, it repeated it in all its details. Although the rise of Hitler, the rearmament of Germany, and the Nazi expansion preceding World War II were not hidden secrets, World War II (1939) quickly erupted, causing losses in lives, wealth, and the future far greater than those caused by the first war.
As we say, history repeats itself, but the problem lies not in such repetition, but in the human certainty that the lessons of history are for others, not for oneself, thus falling into the illusion of exception. Why, for example, did Hitler not learn from Mussolini’s mistakes? Why did Gaddafi not see in Saddam Hussein’s fate a warning message? Why do we all repeat the mistakes of others daily, believing we will be the exception to the consequences of those mistakes?
The war that began in Gaza and southern Lebanon, then spread to all countries of the Middle East, including Gulf states, closely resembles, especially in its pre- and post-war details, those that occurred during World War II. There is a similarity in the accumulations that led to both wars. In the second war, conflicts began locally before expanding internationally, and risks continued as diplomatic settlements failed. Alliances formed in preparation for war, which later transformed, with escalating intensity, into an economic war dominated by global depression, undermining political and financial stability. This occurred in an atmosphere of intense arms racing, with the international system’s effectiveness declining to curb collapse and destruction. Despite all these risks, the same accumulations return today, whether in the war in Ukraine or the war in the Middle East, with growing international repercussions due to the accumulation of regional crises that now threaten the entire world.
The world’s tragedy regarding wars does not lie in their unpredictability; we all expect some war to erupt somewhere. The tragedy here lies in the world’s belief that today’s wars, unlike yesterday’s, are containable, and that the ability to control their repercussions and risks is greater today than during World War II. All parties today believe they can escalate and contain simultaneously, a paradox that history has proven illogical.
Times may be different today, and this is true to some extent, but the danger multiplies when differences in circumstances are confused with the absence of risks, or when history is assumed to repeat itself. However, the world is too smart to repeat history’s mistakes.
The precursors to wars and disasters are more significant than their aftermaths. Unlike wars, these precursors do not appear catastrophic, yet they are far more important because they are what ignite the conflicts. The greatest human problem here is that when people recognize the precursors of a disaster, they refuse to change their course, believing their path to be an exception. We see this every day in all the details of the ongoing war in our region. Suad Fahd Al-Muajjal
