Race to Secure Alternative Oil Export Routes

The economist poses another question: Who will pay the bill? The new regional order is not born solely from political speeches; its contours are defined in budgets, trade patterns, and energy export routes. In Tehran, the dollar surpassed 2.5 million rials, inflation neared 90 percent year-on-year in September, and Iranian oil exports fell to zero that same month under the weight of U.S. sanctions. Yet besieged regimes do not necessarily collapse when their resources are depleted; sanctions may impoverish populations before toppling governments. In the occupation entity, Netanyahu made the overthrow of the Iranian regime a declared goal and pledged to implement it, while he faces elections on October 27 amid polls mostly indicating a lead for Eizenkot’s party without a guaranteed majority for any camp. Meanwhile, Washington’s president announced no new attacks on Iran before the midterm congressional elections on November 3, but electoral calculations may delay escalation without ruling it out. For about eight months, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced unprecedented turbulence, marked by disrupted navigation, a partial return of exports under protection, and threats extending from oil tankers to communications cables. Brent crude has surpassed $116 per barrel, but higher prices do not benefit producers whose export capacity is faltering. The International Monetary Fund projects Kuwait’s economy will contract by 16.7 percent in 2026 and Qatar’s by 15.6 percent, while Oman’s economy retains positive growth forecasts, and its major ports enjoy locations outside the strait. Saudi Arabia relies on the East-West Pipeline to reach Yanbu, and the UAE is accelerating the construction of a second pipeline to Fujairah to boost export capacity away from “Hormuz.” Kuwait, however, still lacks an alternative export route bypassing the strait; projects linking via Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain in the study phase, while oil revenues account for roughly four-fifths of its budget revenues. The issue is not merely about building a pipeline, but redefining Kuwait’s economic security through diversifying export routes, establishing a strategic reserve outside the strait, and accelerating the diversification of public revenues. Dependence on a single market is risky; dependence on a single export outlet is doubly risky when the general budget is tied to a tanker’s ability to navigate a turbulent waterway. Therefore, the question is not who will fall first in Tehran or Tel Aviv, but where Kuwait will stand when the region’s energy and trade map is redrawn. Will it remain hostage to a single strait, or become a partner in building new routes? Alternative outlets, reserves outside the strait, and revenues that do not pass through it—this is the countdown that matters. Dr. Khaled Mubarak Al-Dalkham