Central Asia and the Caucasus: A strategic depth the Gulf should not leave to others
The text calls on Gulf states to expand their strategic presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus to balance the influence of major powers and secure trade and economic corridors
Translated by Qiyas from النهار — Original source
Amid rapid geopolitical shifts and the repercussions of the US war on Iran since February 2026, along with associated threats to regional security, international navigation, and supply chains, there is a strategic imperative to expand the Gulf presence in the former Soviet republics, particularly Central Asia and the Caucasus. These regions serve as a geographical and economic bridge between China, Turkey, and Europe. This area has become an arena for international competition over influence, resources, energy, and trade corridors, where the interests of China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, India, and the United States intersect. Consequently, Gulf presence is no longer merely an investment opportunity, but a necessity to enhance economic and strategic security and to participate in shaping the balance of power.
China, India, and Russia: Multi-dimensional Influence
China has expanded its investments in infrastructure, railways, and energy within the Belt and Road Initiative, while Russia maintains its traditional geopolitical and military presence. The challenge does not lie in the economic expansion of these partners, as China is a key partner for Gulf states, but rather in the implications of some of these powers’ relations with Iran on regional security. This is particularly evident in the continued purchase of Iranian oil and the existence of supply networks linked to military programs, according to US reports. There are also risks regarding the exploitation of corridors to transport dual-use goods, necessitating enhanced monitoring and security to ensure the safety of these routes. As for India, despite its significant economic partnership with the Gulf, its development of Iran’s Chabahar port reflects geopolitical interests that require vigilance and an assessment of their implications for regional security.
Economic Opportunities and Food Security
The Middle Corridor, extending from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Turkey and Europe, presents a strategic opportunity to diversify supply chains and secure the Gulf’s food and water security needs through direct investment in the vast agricultural and mineral potential of these republics. World Bank studies indicate that trade volume on this corridor could triple and transport times could be halved with infrastructure development. Conversely, trade between Gulf states and Central Asia reached approximately $10 billion in 2023, representing only 0.7% of the GCC’s total global trade, according to the GCC Secretariat General, highlighting a significant gap between potential and reality.
From Memoranda of Understanding to Actual Partnerships
Gulf states possess capital and sovereign wealth funds, while these republics hold natural resources and strategic locations. The requirement is to translate this complementarity into a joint Gulf strategy that includes: 1) Establishing a Gulf investment platform to finance projects in transport, energy, food security, and mutual industries. 2) Developing logistical corridors and railways and linking them to Gulf ports, while overcoming customs and legislative obstacles. 3) Building industrial, technological, and cultural partnerships that strengthen people-to-people ties and achieve sustainable mutual interests. 4) Enhancing security and defense cooperation, particularly in combating smuggling, cybersecurity, and information exchange. 5) Establishing a Gulf mechanism to monitor implementation based on clear timelines and performance indicators.
Gulf Security Begins Beyond Its Borders
Gulf security does not end at its geographical borders; it extends to trade, energy, and financial networks and international corridors. The goal is not to confront China, Russia, or India, but to build an influential Gulf presence that prevents the monopolization of influence and expands strategic options.
The more numerous the corridors, funding sources, and international partnerships become, the more diminished a state’s ability to leverage its position or influence to impose its choices on others. Investment in Central Asia and the Caucasus is not merely a pursuit of financial returns, but an investment in the future economic and strategic security of the Gulf region. Those who do not participate today in building these corridors and partnerships may find themselves tomorrow facing a balance of power shaped by others without their involvement.
