US Elections: 'Shoulder-to-Shoulder' Race in Republican Strongholds

Washington (Agencies): Democrats hold a lead over Republicans in opinion polls six days before the U.S. midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3. However, electoral prospects remain closely matched, with the two parties “neck and neck” in several states, making it difficult to predict the outcome.

The U.S. midterm elections, held midway through a presidential term (between 2024 and 2028), aim to renew the national legislative body (Congress), alongside the selection of new officials for executive and legislative positions at the state level. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Candidates from both rival parties are also competing for governorships in 36 states, as well as thousands of seats in local legislative bodies (state houses and senates in most U.S. states). The same ballot will also see the election of numerous district attorneys, mayors, and other local officials.

U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his campaign efforts to rally support for Republican candidates, holding rallies in Texas before heading to Ohio. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Georgia to support the Democratic Party.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by nine points. According to the poll, conducted from October 22 to 26, 47% of voters support the Democratic Party, compared to 36% for the Republican Party. When including undecided voters, Democrats lead with 50% support versus 41% for Republicans.

In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1988, the poll shows a dead heat between Democratic candidate James Talariqo and Republican candidate Ken Paxton. Trump has made several visits to Texas, but polls indicate a tighter and more competitive race than the president had described.

In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdulrahman Al-Sayed and Republican candidate Mike Rogers are engaged in a fierce and close contest for a Senate seat. In Kansas, no Democrat has been elected to the Senate since 1932, but incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces stiff competition from Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. The race prompted visits from both Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, to the state.

According to the U.S. Associated Press, both parties and their allies spent approximately $71 million on election advertising in Kansas, making it the most expensive Senate race in the state’s history.

In Alaska, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski announced her support for Democrat Jonathan Chris Tompkins for governor, rather than Bernadette Wilson, the Trump-backed candidate.

Meanwhile, a federal judge rejected efforts by the U.S. Department of Justice to exclude ballots from more than 20,000 voters in California, whom the department claimed might not hold U.S. citizenship. The judge condemned the move as blatant interference ahead of the election. Democratic leaders filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the request, accusing Republicans of issuing “threats and intimidation” against state officials and local authorities prior to voting.

Both sides are engaged in a tight and highly competitive race, with more than $400 million spent or committed to election advertising by October 8, according to a report published by Axios.