Economic Issues Drive Midterm Congressional Elections

With the midterm elections for the U.S. Congress scheduled for November 3 approaching, opinion polls show that many Americans are dissatisfied with the direction the country is taking, and most are experiencing economic anxiety regarding their current situation and their ability to improve it in the future. The upcoming elections will include voting for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as one-third of the seats in the Senate. The Republican Party, led by President Donald Trump, holds a narrow majority in both chambers. If it loses this majority to the Democratic Party, it will place pressure on Trump during the remaining two years of his second term, potentially limiting his ability to implement his desired policies. Bloomberg reports that spending on political advertising during the upcoming election campaigns has risen to a record high of $11.6 billion, surpassing spending in the 2024 presidential election, highlighting the intensity of competition in these elections. Republicans are spending more than Democrats, according to Bloomberg, but opinion polls indicate that Democrats are favored to win control of the House of Representatives.

Cost of living and diesel prices: The economy is generally the top concern for voters in these elections. A Pew Research Center poll conducted between September 28 and October 4 showed that 84% of registered voters said the economy is “very important” to them when voting in the congressional midterms. The cost of living tops the list of economic issues of concern to voters, who view the economy through the lens of the costs families bear in their daily lives, rather than through macroeconomic indicators such as growth rates, which currently appear positive, with the U.S. economy growing at an annual rate of 2%.

Iran war: Democratic candidates blame the Iran war for rising energy costs and hold Trump responsible for this increase, pledging to stop the war if they win a majority in the upcoming elections. The Pew poll shows that about 65% of Americans oppose Trump’s handling of the Iran war, compared to 33% who support it. Democratic candidates have criticized the war, describing it as lacking public support, costly, and without a clear end. Obama noted that Iran has acquired, in his words, the ability to influence navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which important oil supplies flow to global markets. The former U.S. president linked disruptions in navigation to rising oil and diesel prices, and the resulting increase in the prices of goods and services, arguing that Americans are paying the economic cost of the war’s repercussions.

Government corruption: Distrust in the government prevails among most voters. According to a Gallup poll published in early September, 89% of U.S. adults believe government corruption is widespread, a very high percentage. This figure is even higher among Democratic voters, with 91% stating that government corruption is widespread in 2026, compared to 57% in 2024, when former Democratic President Joe Biden was in the White House.

Democrats point to the stock trades conducted by Trump and the profits he made from projects linked to cryptocurrencies during his time in the White House as examples, in their view, of the president exploiting his office for personal gain. According to a poll conducted by KFF on healthcare and published on October 6, about six in ten voters are concerned about healthcare costs, and nearly half consider this issue “very important” when deciding which candidates to support in the upcoming midterm congressional elections. The poll also showed that voters trust the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party to handle healthcare costs, with 42% favoring Democrats compared to 22% for Republicans. Democrats have pledged to repeal all cuts to the Medicaid program, known as “Medicaid,” enacted by the Republican Party in last year’s budget, as the program serves low-income Americans and people with disabilities.

Artificial intelligence and data centers: Many Americans are concerned about the impact of data centers on energy, water, and land consumption, especially given the huge sums currently being spent on them by U.S. technology companies. Bloomberg notes that public anxiety and growing rejection of artificial intelligence among Americans are typically expressed as opposition to data centers, which constitute the core infrastructure for AI. According to Pew Research Center polls, Democrats express greater concern than Republicans about the role of AI in daily life and the possibility that it could lead to significant job losses. In contrast, Trump supports expanding data centers and AI, viewing them as essential for achieving technological leadership amid fierce competition with China. Trump has dismissed warnings from leaders of leading AI companies, including Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, about the dangers of AI getting out of control, and their calls to slow down its development.