Hormuz Under Protection, Oil Tests $105

Global energy markets have entered a new phase of anticipation, with a growing portion of oil flows returning through the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with rising Saudi exports. However, ongoing political tensions and US President Donald Trump’s rejection of the latest Iranian proposal to reopen the stratum keep the geopolitical risk premium present in oil prices and financial markets.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the average volume of oil crossing the Strait of Hormuz is currently around 13 million barrels per day, noting that US forces are assisting in facilitating the transport of oil, gas, petroleum products, and fertilizers through the strait. He added that one day last week saw more than 20 million barrels cross, a level exceeding pre-conflict figures. This development holds particular significance for markets, as it indicates that supply movements are beginning to regain some of their normal levels. However, this does not mean risks have returned to pre-crisis levels, especially given the continued need for military protection and rising transportation and insurance costs.

In the latest political development, Trump rejected the Iranian proposal on September 26, which called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming negotiations within seven days, a move that keeps the future of navigation and oil supplies contingent on the trajectory of upcoming talks.

Saudi Arabia Returns Strongly to the Export Market

In a parallel development, Saudi crude oil exports jumped to around 6 million barrels per day in September, according to data from Kpler, compared to approximately 3.4 million barrels per day in August, returning shipments to levels close to the 2025 average. This increase occurred despite the precautionary closure of the East-West Pipeline following attacks on its infrastructure, prompting the Kingdom to redirect a larger portion of its exports via Gulf ports and the Strait of Hormuz.

Tracking data confirms that Saudi oil exports via Gulf ports rose significantly, while oil flows through Hormuz increased in September compared to August. However, rising exports do not mean pressures have disappeared; the oil transport process has become more costly and complex due to the growing reliance on ship-to-ship transfers, protected shipments, and higher transportation and insurance costs. Reuters estimates that ship-to-ship transfers in the region increased during September, reflecting the difficulty in returning trade routes to their previous normalcy.

Oil Above $104

In markets, Brent crude recorded around $104.32 per barrel in the latest data on September 27, down by approximately 2.08%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reached around $92.44, down by 2.29%. The decline in oil from last week’s peaks reflects the market’s attempt to absorb the relative improvement in supply flows. However, prices remain elevated compared to pre-escalation levels, reflecting the continued risk premium associated with maritime passages and Gulf supplies. Consequently, oil prices are currently moving between two opposing factors: an increase in crude quantities heading to markets on one hand, and the persistence of political and security risks surrounding export routes on the other.

Kuwait Stock Exchange.. Limited Rise

The improvement in sentiment was partially reflected in the Kuwait Stock Exchange, which ended yesterday’s trading with its general index rising by 7.77 points, or 0.09%, to 8,844.78 points. Trading volume reached approximately 414.8 million shares across 20,383 transactions valued at 87.5 million dinars. The First Market Index rose by 8.66 points to 9,235.74 points, while the Main Market Index advanced by 5.44 points, whereas the “Main 50” Index declined marginally.

The Kuwaiti market’s movement remains highly correlated with developments in oil prices and global liquidity, particularly given the sensitivity of leading companies and operational sectors to any changes in energy prices or interest rate and inflation expectations.

Gold as a Safe Haven Above $4,280

Gold continued to hold high levels, with the spot price recording around $4,284.20 per ounce in the latest data on September 27, up by 0.25% during the session. In Kuwait, the price of 24-karat gold per gram reached approximately 42.52 dinars, an increase of about 0.47% compared to the previous day’s close. The strength of gold reflects the continued demand for assets that investors view as safe havens during periods of uncertainty, as war and energy risks intersect with inflation expectations and the trajectory of global interest rates.

Bitcoin.. $85,000

Bitcoin is moving near the $85,000 level, recording around $84,800 in the latest data with daily gains of approximately 0.8%, while market data indicates a rise of about 4% over the week. The movement of the cryptocurrency remains linked to risk appetite and global liquidity, at a time when rising oil prices and their accompanying inflationary pressures and bond yields can influence investor trends toward high-risk assets.

Markets Face a Dual Test

Current developments place markets before a complex economic equation: a relative improvement in oil flows is countered by the persistence of political risks; rising gold is countered by resilience in digital assets, while Gulf stock exchanges move under the influence of energy prices and global liquidity. For Kuwait and the Gulf, the future path will remain largely tied to the region’s ability to maintain energy flows and commercial navigation, and whether diplomatic developments will lead to actual de-escalation or keep markets under the influence of the risk premium.

Oil Today

- Brent: $104.32 per barrel, -2.08%

- “Hormuz” Flows: Around 13 million barrels per day

- Saudi Exports: Around 6 million barrels per day in September

Gold and Cryptocurrencies

- Gold: $4,284.20 per ounce, +0.25%

- 24-karat gold in Kuwait: 42.52 dinars per gram

- Bitcoin: Around $84,800

- Weekly Bitcoin Gains: Around 4%