JPMorgan: It is difficult to predict the trajectory of oil prices

JPMorgan Chase Bank believes that the ongoing war with Iran has made the oil market trajectory more difficult to predict, after prices surpassed the $100-per-barrel mark. The bank estimates the fair value of oil in September at approximately $90 per barrel, compared with current trading levels near $106, reflecting market pricing for the potential loss of an additional 4 million barrels per day in supply, on top of roughly 10 million barrels per day already disrupted. The bank warns that continued disruptions to oil flows from the Middle East, coupled with the absence of clear signs of de-escalation, could keep prices elevated during the fourth quarter of 2026, while increasing risks to global growth and inflation.