Digitalization adds $2.8 trillion to global trade

The digitalization of global trade could add $2.8 trillion to trade volumes by 2031, while rising geopolitical fragmentation could result in a loss of approximately $3.8 trillion compared to the baseline, according to the “Future of Trade 2026” report issued by Standard Chartered Bank in collaboration with Oxford Economics. The report is based on a survey of 2,100 senior executives across 27 markets, alongside economic models forecasting global trade developments through 2031. The survey revealed that 91% of business leaders expect to make changes to their supply chain activities over the next three to five years, yet around 60% do not intend to enter new markets or exit existing ones in sourcing, manufacturing, and exporting activities. This indicates that companies are focusing more on recalibrating their current networks rather than geographically redistributing them, by strengthening supplier relationships, improving inventory management, and developing internal capabilities to anticipate and respond to shocks. The importance of geographic diversification in corporate priorities declined by 7.2 points, while the importance of supplier strategy increased by 4.3 points and inventory management by 2.9 points. Digital tools have become a key element in managing trade and supply chain risks: 83% of companies stated that digitalization enables them to respond more quickly to supply disruptions, while 82% reported that it improves decision quality by enhancing financial and operational visibility and forecasting. Eighty percent of companies said they have realized tangible benefits from at least one digital capability, but this figure drops to 40% for companies benefiting from three or more digital capabilities, and to just 7% for those leveraging five or more. The report defines companies that most successfully combine executive maturity with actual returns from technology as “Digital Leaders.” It warns that small and medium-sized enterprises may be most vulnerable to falling behind in digital transformation due to limited internal capabilities and high costs of adopting new technologies. The report concludes that a company’s ability to achieve digital adaptability and link financial and operational decisions through unified data will become an increasingly decisive factor in its capacity to navigate global trade disruptions, amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and increasingly complex cross-border supply chains.