In tandem with oil disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ moves toward maintaining oil production levels in October

The OPEC+ alliance is likely to maintain its oil production policy unchanged for October at its meeting on Sunday, as it completes the rollback of part of its production cuts and shifts its focus to quota negotiations for next year, according to three sources familiar with the matter to Reuters.

The ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which has diminished OPEC+’s influence over price setting and market share.

The Sunday meeting will include seven key countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and the Sultanate of Oman, which have raised their monthly production quotas for most of this year. Two sources confirmed that the meeting will be held remotely via the internet at 11:00 GMT.

Actual production has fallen short of plans. Actual output has failed to meet the planned increases in quotas, as the wars in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan. The alliance comprises OPEC member countries and their partners, including Russia. No official response was issued by OPEC, Saudi Arabia, or Russia to requests for comment.

Regarding the background of the cuts and new demands, the increase agreed upon in August continues the gradual rollback of the 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut first approved in 2023, when the UAE was still part of the alliance before withdrawing in May. The alliance continues to review members’ production capacities to establish baseline figures for 2027, while some members, such as Iraq, are calling for increased quotas to reflect their rising capacities. The UAE had previously withdrawn because its quota did not align with its production capacity.