Maritime Chokepoint Wars Ignite the “Breadbasket of the World”
The repercussions of wars are no longer confined to oil and energy markets, as the flames of conflict are now spreading directly to global food markets. This escalation is driven by rising risks to two of the most critical arteries of maritime trade: the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea. These threats jeopardize energy and grain flows while driving up transportation, insurance, and shipping costs.
As wheat prices have become a new indicator of the widening scope of conflicts, futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade hit their highest levels in nearly three years. Friday’s trading session closed at $7.84 per bushel, marking a 12.1% increase over two weeks and a gain of more than 54% since the beginning of the year. This surge in wheat prices coincides with intensifying Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ports, ships, and grain infrastructure in the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine together account for approximately one-quarter to one-third of global wheat exports, depending on measurement methodologies and time periods.
**Hormuz: From Over 100 Ships to Five Daily**
In the Gulf, the situation appears even more severe. Traffic of bulk commodity vessels through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to around five ships per day by the end of the week, compared to more than 100 daily before the war. Data from Kpler showed that navigation observed over the weekend was limited to a small number of vessels, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers, as shipping companies exercise extreme caution regarding security risks in the region. However, tracking data does not necessarily reflect the total number of ships transiting the strait, as some vessels have turned off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) in an attempt to reduce the risk of being targeted.
The Strait of Hormuz holds exceptional importance for the global economy, serving as a conduit for massive volumes of oil, gas, and petroleum products. According to UNCTAD data, crude oil flows through the strait accounted for approximately 38% of total global maritime shipments in the week prior to the outbreak of hostilities, compared to 29% for LNG and 19% for natural gas. Gulf crude exports have also declined significantly compared to pre-war levels. Estimates cited by Reuters suggest that between 5 and 7 million barrels per day of Gulf oil are at risk of disruption or interruption.
**The Energy Artery Turns into a Trade Crisis**
The importance of Hormuz extends beyond oil. Disruptions in navigation through the strait increase transportation, insurance, and marine fuel costs, indirectly affecting the prices of goods reliant on maritime transport. UNCTAD notes that Hormuz’s disruptions do not affect energy alone; they extend to fertilizers, transport, supply chains, and food, making the crisis’s repercussions broader than a mere shortage of oil and gas supplies. Amid ongoing risks, companies are beginning to rearrange shipping routes and seek alternatives, adding distance and new costs to the journey of goods from producer to consumer.
**The Black Sea: The Breadbasket Under Fire**
On the other side of the map, the Black Sea faces a parallel crisis as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ports, grain terminals, and commercial ships intensify. Mutual attacks have led to the closure or disruption of several export facilities and delayed grain shipments, just as the region enters its peak export season. Industry reports indicate that attacks have taken a significant portion of Ukraine’s grain export capacity out of service, while Russian export movements face increasing pressure.
These developments occur at a time when global markets have little room to absorb a new shock, particularly since Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s largest wheat suppliers. The sensitivity of the crisis is clearly visible in Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, where markets face mounting pressure due to declining supplies from the Black Sea and rising costs of alternatives. S&P Global reported that wheat prices in the Eastern Mediterranean reached record levels near $301 per ton as inventories among some importers and the private sector shrank.
**The Rising Cost of Alternatives**
The problem lies not only in the rising price of wheat itself but in the increasing cost of accessing it. As ships move further from traditional production zones, transportation distances, fuel, insurance, and shipping costs rise, pushing importers to seek alternative sources such as the United States, Australia, and Argentina—alternatives that may be more expensive in certain markets. According to Reuters, wheat prices in competing markets have risen as buyers seek alternative shipments from outside the Black Sea region, leaving Egypt, Indonesia, and several other major importers more exposed to supply disruptions.
**Arab Nations at the Heart of the Storm**
The crisis holds special significance for Arab countries, which rely to varying degrees on grain imports to meet their food needs. With the disruption in the Black Sea coinciding with navigation crises in the Gulf, supply chains face double pressure: grain sources are threatened on one hand, and energy and maritime transport routes are disrupted on the other. Here, the wheat crisis transforms from a commodity market issue into a broader food security challenge, particularly for countries that rely heavily on imports and lack sufficient domestic production to cover their needs.
**Three Arteries Under Pressure**
The picture does not end with Hormuz and the Black Sea. Disruptions in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait add another layer of risk to trade flows between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Consequently, the global economy finds itself facing a network of maritime corridors under pressure, at a time when approximately 80% of global trade volume relies on maritime transport. The result is a highly sensitive equation: wars disrupting ports, shrinking transit through maritime corridors, ships seeking longer routes, more expensive insurance, and wheat prices jumping to multi-year highs.
**The Bread Pays the Geopolitical Bill**
As the wars continue and risks to ports and ships increase, the question for global markets is no longer just: “What is the price of wheat?” It has become: “How will wheat reach the importer, and what will the cost of its journey be?” If disruptions in the Black Sea, Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb persist, rising grain prices may shift from a temporary wave in commodity markets to sustained pressure on food prices, transport costs, and inflation, particularly in economies most dependent on imports. Thus, war is no longer just driving up energy prices; it is adding new costs to the loaf of bread, the food basket, and supply chains, making maritime corridors an essential part of the global food security equation.
**Crisis Indicators**
* **54%**: Increase in wheat futures since the start of 2026.
* **$7.84**: Price per bushel of wheat in Chicago at the end of the week.
* **12.1%**: Wheat gains within one week.
* **5 ships daily**: Observed bulk commodity vessel traffic through Hormuz.
* **Over 100 ships daily**: Traffic through the strait before the war.
* **38%**: Share of maritime crude oil flows passing through Hormuz before the war.
* **29%**: Share of LNG flows.
* **19%**: Share of natural gas flows.
* **5–7 million barrels per day**: Estimated disruption to Gulf oil supplies.
* **$301 per ton**: Near-record wheat level in the Eastern Mediterranean.
* **Russia and Ukraine**: Together among the largest global wheat suppliers.
