Oil between 'Hormuz' and Venezuela: Supply struggle strains markets
Goldman Sachs points to the recovery of Gulf oil exports and the return of tankers to the Strait of Hormuz, which limits upward price pressures, alongside US moves to reintegrate Venezuela into the global market.
Translated by Qiyas from النهار — Original source
The global energy market has entered a new phase of reshaping the supply map, as Gulf oil exports gradually recover and a significant portion of tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with a broad U.S. push to reintegrate Venezuela and its vast oil reserves into the global supply system. While increased Gulf oil flows have helped ease upward pressure on crude prices, Goldman Sachs warns that if supply disruptions persist, the greatest risks may shift from crude oil to natural gas and oil product futures markets, particularly in Europe. These developments come as global markets closely monitor tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping lanes, while Venezuela is re-emerging as a key player that could add new oil supplies to the market in the coming years.
Goldman Sachs reported that crude oil and petroleum product exports from the Gulf region have risen to approximately 15–16 million barrels per day, representing roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. Although these volumes remain about 7–8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels, they mark a significant improvement compared to the low flows recorded in March, when shipments dropped to around 5–6 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs estimates that oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz alone may approach 8–10 million barrels per day, a figure that aligns with assessments by U.S. officials. This indicates that, despite ongoing geopolitical disruptions, the oil market has managed to restore a significant portion of its capacity to transport supplies from the Gulf to global markets.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the global oil equation due to its role in transporting energy supplies from the Gulf to international markets. Recent data show that producers and shipping companies have developed mechanisms to cope with operational constraints, including increased transshipment operations, the use of alternative routes, and higher volumes of ship-to-ship cargo transfers. Goldman Sachs argues that this operational flexibility helps curb sharp increases in crude oil prices, even if disruptions persist for a longer period. Moreover, rising flows have reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed crude prices to elevated levels during the peak of the crisis. Oil prices have fallen from highs exceeding $120 per barrel during the height of the disruptions to around $89 per barrel, with Brent crude recently recording weekly losses amid growing hopes that arrangements enabling continued oil flows through the strait could be reached.
