Slight improvement in shipping activity in the Gulf region

Data showed a slight improvement in navigation traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, amid ongoing stalemate between the United States and Iran and as observers await the results of Omani-Iranian talks concerning the waterway. According to Kpler data, the total number of bulk commodity cargo ships observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz rose to ten, a slight increase from eight the previous day. However, this figure remains below the ten-day moving average of approximately 15 ships. Seven tankers of varying sizes entered the strait from the Gulf of Oman, while three vessels exited.

A senior Iranian source stated that Iran and Oman are still working on finalizing the details of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, following the announcement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that the two countries had agreed on how to share the waterway and its revenues.

Meanwhile, navigation traffic slowed for the second consecutive day at the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, another key maritime passage. Kpler data showed that a total of 19 ships transited the Bab al-Mandab strait on Wednesday, down from 24 the previous day. There may be additional vessels sailing with their transponders turned off, which could result in them not being captured in the statistics.

Ayman Shalaby, Managing Director of Midbal for Shipping Solutions, told "Al Arabiya Business" in an interview that all parties, including the United States, Gulf states, and Europe, share a common goal of reopening the strait to navigation. He noted that Iran and Oman have reached arrangements concerning safe passages, the number and types of ships allowed to transit, transit priorities, and the issue of potential transit fees. He added that these arrangements have begun to be implemented, with an increase in the number of ships transiting to and from the Gulf, although most available data focuses on oil tankers.

Shalaby suggested that other vessels, such as bulk carriers and container ships, may also be transiting, as some ships continue to disable their tracking devices. He viewed the situation as gradually moving toward a de facto reopening of the strait, coinciding with a relative de-escalation of tensions and shipowners beginning to make decisions to resume traffic. He clarified that ships have started using a new route closer to the Omani side instead of the traditional path, although full confirmation that the area is free of mines remains a crucial factor for the return of normal navigation.

He added that the increase in transiting ships is beginning to reflect in global markets, noting a relative calm in crude oil prices alongside the rising number of ships transiting to and from the Arabian Gulf.

Regarding potential transit fees, Shalaby explained that the Strait of Hormuz has historically been a global maritime passage open to sea trade, with ships transiting without complex arrangements or fees, the procedure being limited to notifying relevant authorities of a ship’s entry and passage. He pointed out that recent developments have led Iran to view the strait as a card to be played for political and commercial objectives, while Oman has become an essential part of the solution by contributing to the arrangements for new passages, the transit system, and monitoring.

He clarified that the technical aspects of the transit mechanism have become clearer, while the financial aspect remains ambiguous, particularly regarding which entity would collect any potential fees and the payment mechanism. He stated that some ships are already transiting, but there is currently no clear official information on whether amounts are being paid directly to any party. He expected the financial mechanism to become clearer as navigation stabilizes and official clarifications are issued by the concerned parties.

Shalaby believes that imposing transit fees on this vital passage may face objections from the international community, given that global trade is fundamentally based on freedom of navigation. He explained that any new arrangements could lead to objections from some parties if fees or restrictions are applied to ships, but he considered that such arrangements might become a fait accompli if they are part of a mechanism to reopen the strait and secure ship traffic. He added that the final picture will become clearer once the situation stabilizes and traffic returns to higher levels, at which point the international community’s stance on the fee mechanism and new arrangements can be determined.

Regarding the expected scenario in the event of a war ending and a final agreement being reached, Shalaby said it is difficult to determine whether navigation will return to pre-crisis levels, considering the probabilities seem close between a return to normal traffic and the continuation of some restrictions and new arrangements. He explained that the maritime trade and transport sector has learned an important lesson from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and a large part of companies and states will reconsider their complete reliance on this passage, even after the war ends. He noted that alternatives include the use of pipelines, transit ports, and hub ports in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, as well as Egyptian ports, aiming to redirect part of trade traffic to the Arabian Gulf via different routes.