Final Phase of US Midterm Elections... Heated Race for Congress

By Rola Al-Riyashi, Washington -- The final phase of the U.S. midterm congressional elections began today, Tuesday, following early voting and mail-in ballots in a contest that serves as a significant political test for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, and an opportunity for Democrats to regain control of the legislative branch amid sharp political divisions and fierce competition for seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. These elections are particularly important because they will determine the balance of power in Congress during the final two years of Trump’s term and will directly affect his administration’s ability to pass legislation, approve budgets, and implement its political agenda, as well as the level of oversight and accountability it may face from Congress.

Attention is focused on several states whose outcomes could decide control of the Senate, notably Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, where tight races are unfolding for Senate seats. Democrats need net gains of at least four seats to wrest majority control from Republicans, who currently hold 53 seats compared to 47 for Democrats and their independent allies. Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio stand out as key opportunities for Democrats to shift the competitive balance, while Michigan is one of the most prominent states Republicans are seeking to capture. Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas are also gaining importance due to the closeness of the races and shifting voter sentiment in some states that were traditionally Republican strongholds.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats’ prospects for regaining the majority appear relatively stronger, benefiting from economic pressures and rising living costs. Competition is concentrated in swing districts in states such as Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. Projections suggest Democrats have a serious chance of reclaiming the House, but controlling the Senate appears more difficult, given the need for the party to win several tight races and hold onto threatened seats. Observers also expect voter turnout among young people and minorities to be a decisive factor in the results.

Voters’ concerns center on the economy, inflation, and cost of living, alongside immigration, trade policies, tariffs, and military operations against Iran, after several legislative attempts to prevent further actions were thwarted. This comes amid repeated statements by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the possibility of resuming such operations after the midterms.

If Democrats regain control of the House alone, the U.S. administration will face greater difficulties in passing bills and budgets, and the party will gain chairmanships of key committees, granting it broad powers to conduct investigations—including potential impeachment inquiries—and hold hearings on administration policies, including those related to immigration, war powers, and government spending. If Democrats also take control of the Senate, they could block or delay confirmation of executive and judicial appointments and strengthen oversight of the White House. However, holding a majority does not guarantee the ability to pass all legislation, as Senate rules typically require 60 votes to overcome filibusters on most bills.

Regardless of opinion polls, past experience shows that control of the two parties often shifts in U.S. midterm elections, a trend the U.S. president has indicated he expects to repeat this time.

In response to a journalist’s question during an interview he conducted last weekend with The New York Post regarding his strategy for dealing with the possibility of Democrats taking control of Congress, Trump said he would become “Mr. Veto,” meaning he would use his veto power against any legislation before negotiating compromises. Conversely, if Republicans retain majorities in both chambers, Trump would have a wider margin to continue implementing his agenda, including policies on taxes, immigration, defense spending, and governmental and judicial appointments. Beyond their direct legislative outcomes, the elections will serve as a key indicator of voter trends ahead of the 2028 presidential race. A Republican loss in one or both chambers would constitute a political setback for Trump and bolster the Democrats’ position in confronting his administration, whereas retaining Congress for his party would provide political support for him to continue advancing his priorities during the final two years of his term. Emphasizing the significance of the current contest, the U.S. president stressed in the closing speech of his campaign that it is “the most important in our lives,” urging his base to turn out and vote for Republican candidates. Thus, today’s elections transcend their routine function of renewing legislative seats, becoming a test of Trump’s popularity and his ability to maintain his political influence, particularly regarding the future relationship between the White House and Congress up to the next presidential election. (End) R.S.R./M.K.