International Warnings of Unprecedented Severity of 'El Nino' Phenomenon: 50 Million People Face Worsening Hunger

Geneva, October 21 (KUNA) -- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned on Wednesday of the long-term climate and humanitarian consequences of an “unprecedentedly intense” El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to peak at the end of 2026 and threatens to worsen food insecurity and hunger for more than 50 million people.

The warning came during a joint press conference in Geneva held by Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, and Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, who issued a joint call for urgent proactive action.

Saulo stated that the latest climate forecasts indicate a likelihood of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the epicenter of El Niño, rising by approximately 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November 2026 and January 2027. She emphasized that the impacts of the phenomenon would persist for a long time after reaching its peak.

She explained that a powerful El Niño disrupts natural patterns, causing severe droughts in some regions, heavy rainfall and floods in others, and increased heatwaves across vast areas of the world.

While noting that the intensity of the phenomenon does not necessarily guarantee a severe humanitarian disaster, Saulo stressed that scientific forecasts and early warnings provide opportunities for proactive action to prevent disasters, save lives, and protect livelihoods. She called for urgent measures to protect the most vulnerable communities, particularly refugees, people living in conflict zones, and internally displaced persons.

For his part, Fletcher cited African Development Bank estimates indicating that the cost of El Niño for African countries ranges between $10 billion and $20 billion, with potential GDP declines of between one and two percent.

He warned that the impacts of the phenomenon would exacerbate existing crises, including conflicts, displacement, and rising prices of fuel, fertilizers, and food, all against a backdrop of a sharp shortage of humanitarian aid.

He stressed that while the world cannot prevent El Niño, it can mitigate its humanitarian consequences through early preparedness and investment in building community resilience.

In this context, the UN official urged countries, development banks, and international financial institutions to accelerate funding for proactive measures before damage occurs.

He stated that the next two weeks represent a critical window for action, noting that Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya require funds and supplies before the onset of the heavy rainy season, while South Africa needs seeds and livestock before the end of suitable planting periods.

He also called on governments, civil society, academia, and the private sector to scale up the international response and enhance the exchange of data, scientific forecasts, and expertise, emphasizing the importance of intensifying international cooperation and conflict prevention in the most affected areas. (End) A.M.K. / M.A.A.