IEA: Global oil market to return to surplus in Q4 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that the global oil market will return to posting a surplus in the fourth quarter of this year, as Middle East exports recover at a faster pace than global oil demand growth, despite ongoing attacks on maritime shipping.

The agency provided further details on the volumes that will come from an unprecedented drawdown of emergency oil reserves by its member countries, pledged in March. It said 71 million barrels would be available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel, to ease the tightness in market supply.

In its monthly oil report, the agency, which advises industrialized nations, stated that oil supplies would average 105 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter, exceeding expected demand by 1.7 million barrels per day. The IEA had previously forecast a supply deficit in the fourth quarter.