800,000 Jobs Expected to Disappear in Germany Within 15 Years Due to AI

In comments to the German economic daily Handelsblatt on Tuesday, Nales said: “We expect around 800,000 jobs to disappear in Germany over the next 15 years due to artificial intelligence, but we also anticipate the creation of roughly a similar number of new jobs.”

Nales explained: “Some sectors will be more affected by job cuts, such as business services firms and analytical roles in insurance companies and banks. Nevertheless, I hope to see increased investment in AI in Germany, provided it contributes to raising productivity rather than merely being a passing trend.”

Nales added that job cuts would not randomly target highly qualified workers, noting: “The United States has seen a shocking study regarding young university graduates. In Germany, academics are also taking longer to enter the labor market and may not obtain the jobs they dream of, but their prospects remain far better than those of all other groups.”

However, Nales pointed out that AI is not the sole driver of these developments, adding: “Weak economic activity also plays a fundamental role here. Professions less susceptible to AI, such as skilled trades, have proven to be largely resilient.”

Nales argued that the core of work in these professions remains rooted in human skill, stating: “Even individuals without vocational qualifications or formal vocational training can find employment opportunities, because replacing them with AI would not be economically viable. But the general rule still applies: no one is generally immune to these changes.”

Nales clarified that Germany is losing a net 500,000 workers annually due to demographic trends, and noted that net immigration to the country has currently fallen to its lowest level in a long time. She continued: “Therefore, we must also attract specialized personnel from countries outside the European Union. This requires the establishment of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, which was previously pledged to be created, enabling us to compete with other countries that attract immigrants. We also need to become more modern, digitalized, and agile.”

However, Nales believed this requires “the courage to reach a central solution,” referring to disagreements within the governing coalition and between the federal government and the states regarding the regulatory mechanism for the proposed agency.

She said: “What disappoints me is that the focus appears to be on protecting the 550 foreign affairs offices across Germany. But these offices were never originally established to serve as reception and welcome centers for international talent. They perform their duties well, but that is not what we need to compete with Canada.”