Oil prices fall after Trump rules out striking Iran

Oil prices fell on Monday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of new strikes on Iran, but continued attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz kept the focus on supply concerns.

Sujata Sashidhar, from New Delhi-based research firm SS Wealth Street, said, “The market appears to be pricing in a relatively optimistic view of de-escalating tensions, despite the fact that no comprehensive agreement has yet been reached between Washington and Tehran.”

She added, “Unless there is tangible diplomatic progress and a sustainable return of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices are likely to continue including a geopolitical risk premium, with near-term support levels around $93 per barrel for Brent crude.”

Trump said on Sunday that he was unlikely to order new attacks on Iran as long as progress was being made in negotiations aimed at ending the war, despite both countries announcing that shipping vessels had been attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. president had previously hinted at new strikes on Iran following last week’s U.S. midterm elections, but no signs of a large-scale U.S. military operation have emerged. Iran has announced it will retaliate by striking U.S. and Israeli targets.

Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described Trump’s remarks as “more moderate,” but added that “the market is still waiting to see whether the midterm elections have brought a permanent shift in Trump’s approach to the conflict, or if this is just another temporary change in tone.”

In a report issued on Friday, J.P. Morgan stated that oil is heading toward a surplus once again, as the recovery of oil flows from the Middle East, higher production from other countries, and weak demand have caused global supply to exceed consumption levels. The bank estimated the surplus at around 1.1 million barrels per day in September, rising to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

Data from the Statistical Center of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) showed that the average annual growth rate of global crude oil demand for GCC countries reached 3.1 percent between 2021 and 2025.

In a report issued today on the “Gulf Energy Sector 2025,” the center stated that crude oil production in GCC countries rose by 5 percent last year compared to 2024, reaching 16.9 million barrels per day, equivalent to 22.5 percent of global production, reflecting “the continued weight of the Gulf in the international energy supply system.”

Regarding exports, the center noted that GCC crude oil exports reached 12.2 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for 27.3 percent of global crude oil exports, reinforcing the region’s role in meeting international market needs and underscoring the importance of Gulf supply stability amid transformations in global energy markets.

As for the natural gas sector, the center reported that GCC production reached approximately 460.9 billion cubic meters, representing 10.6 percent of global gas production, “reflecting the importance of Gulf gas resources in meeting global energy demand, as well as the role of gas in supporting manufacturing industries and related economic activities.”