2026 to be among the four hottest years in history due to El Niño

A United Nations report released on Monday showed that this year is on track to be one of the four hottest years on record, driven by a strong El Niño phenomenon, continuing a warming trend that has persisted for more than a decade.

Countries are preparing to hold the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Turkey from Monday until November 20 to conduct the next round of climate negotiations. The WMO’s “State of the Global Climate” report provides the latest available data to support these discussions.

The report showed that from January to September this year, the global average temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial era average, and could rise further due to the strong El Niño.

The WMO report, which incorporates nine datasets, also showed that each of the past twelve years, including 2026, has been ranked among the twelve warmest years on record since data recording began around 1850.

John Kennedy, head of the Climate Information Service at the WMO, told journalists in Geneva ahead of the conference: “Every indicator here tells the same story. We see that heat trapped by greenhouse gases is manifesting in the oceans, in the atmosphere, and in melting ice and rising sea levels.”

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service had already indicated that 2026 will almost certainly become the second calendar year after 2024 to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, as set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The UN report noted that heat is accumulating on the planet at an increasing rate, with ocean temperatures continuing to rise above the record levels set in 2025 this year.

The report stated that the global average sea level reached an unprecedented high this year, driven by melting glaciers and ice sheets, as well as thermal expansion of seawater due to rising temperatures.