Fires in 'Hormuz'... Doha proposes interim agreement formula to US and Iranian delegations

Amid expectations pointing to an increased likelihood of renewed military confrontation between the United States and Iran, as diplomatic efforts currently led by Qatar between the two sides face diminishing prospects of success and U.S. military buildup in the region continues, the waters of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz witnessed a notable field escalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed yesterday that explosions and severe fires broke out on three oil tankers, accusing them of sailing through unauthorized routes in the strategic strait.

The UAE National Guard announced that it rescued 22 individuals, all holding Arab nationalities, after a fire broke out on a cargo ship in the Sea of Oman. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman was targeted and disabled after attempting to violate the naval blockade imposed by Washington on Iran.

The source noted that the Americans remain insistent on learning the fate of highly enriched uranium and determining whether Tehran is continuing its nuclear program and increasing enrichment levels.

On the other side, Tehran insists that all these matters can be clarified according to a Cairo understanding between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). However, this understanding will not be implemented unless Iran is assured of an end to U.S. war and hostile actions against it. Furthermore, if information regarding the nuclear program is disclosed, the matter remains confidential with the IAEA.

The source added that Iranians refuse to accept the presence of U.S. inspectors among IAEA inspectors. They demand a list of candidate names from the Agency for any mission to be reviewed, in order to ensure the absence of any agents for the United States or Israel.

He stated that the United States remains adamant that Iran must sign a commitment to halt all activities in its nuclear program while negotiations between the two sides take place to reach a nuclear agreement. Additionally, all highly enriched uranium must remain under IAEA supervision until an agreement is reached between the parties and the fate of this uranium is determined. Iran also rejects this U.S. demand.

The source added that there is also U.S. insistence that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened as it was before February 28, whereas Iran insists that the strait can be opened according to the agreement recently reached between Tehran and Muscat. Military vessels or ships carrying military cargo should not pass through it as long as a state of war persists and the two sides have not reached an agreement on ending hostilities.

He pointed to another disagreement, consisting of Iran’s insistence that the United States must first implement part of its commitments. These include lifting the naval blockade, beginning the withdrawal of U.S. forces threatening Iran, releasing frozen funds, and removing sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Meanwhile, Washington insists that Tehran must first open the strait and allow IAEA inspectors to inspect all nuclear facilities, whether targeted or not, as well as suspicious sites. Only after that will the United States implement its commitments based on Iran’s behavior.

As for the issue of halting the war on all fronts, the source confirmed that the Americans are adamant that they can only offer a unilateral commitment. However, ending the war in Lebanon requires an agreement between the Lebanese state and Israel, while ceasing hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis necessitates a deal between Riyadh and the Houthi movement. Tehran must not negotiate on behalf of the Lebanese, whereas Iran remains insistent that any agreement must include Lebanon. Washington is prepared to commit to forcing Tel Aviv to halt its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon, in exchange for Iran’s pledge that Hezbollah will not attack Israel.

According to the source, although reports suggest the agreement might span two days, implementing all these demands requires time, and it may not be feasible within that timeframe. Nevertheless, Iranians have assured the American side that if they agree to and implement what Iran requests within one day, they are prepared to fulfill all their commitments the following day.

He noted that despite multiple disagreements between the two sides, there is considerable hope of reaching an agreement or a preliminary formula for a phased deal, after the Trump administration confirmed that its intelligence regarding Iran’s nuclear program was false, and that any new military operation would fail to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.

The source did not rule out Washington resorting to a symbolic operation aimed at “declaring a quick victory and withdrawing from the Iranian quagmire,” while maintaining sanctions and a naval blockade. However, he warned that Iran would seek to break the blockade by force, which would reignite fighting.

Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Hossein Habbibi, stated yesterday that the “Iron Gate” plan would not enable the Americans to achieve their goal of exerting severe economic pressure to collapse and dismantle the Iranian economy. He pointed out that there are “good trade relations and multiple channels for commercial ties with the region.”

He threatened a double response to any targeting of Iranian ships by U.S. forces, describing the ongoing war with Washington as a composite conflict encompassing both military and economic dimensions.

For his part, Israeli Security Minister Yisrael Katz affirmed that the mission against Iran has not yet been completed, warning that Tehran is seeking to renew its efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, alongside other initiatives that he described as posing a real threat to the Jewish state.