Republican Defeat Shuffles the Deck for the 2028 Presidential Race

The crushing defeat inflicted by Democrats on US President Donald Trump in the midterm elections has reshaped the calculus for another key electoral contest: the race to succeed him in the White House in 2028.

The Republican loss dealt a severe blow to Vice President JD Vance in particular, who had been the frontrunner to succeed Trump. He now fears that voters may tie his fate to that of a president whose influence has waned in the remainder of his term.

Conversely, these elections may open the door for rising Democratic figures to run for the presidency, including Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, whose youthful presence evokes the image of former President Barack Obama.

The ambitious 42-year-old vice president quickly sought to distance himself from the defeat, attributing it in a lengthy post on the X platform on Wednesday to Trump’s war on Iran, which lacks public support. However, it is unlikely that his attempt to disavow Trump will convince voters.

This is a familiar dilemma for US vice presidents. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in 2024, faced a similar challenge when asked what she would have done differently from Joe Biden, to which she replied, “Nothing comes to mind.”

James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations stated, “The bad news for Vance is that vice presidents rarely win the presidency while in office.”

The name of 55-year-old Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was far less visible during the campaign, is also being raised. However, it will be difficult for any senior official in the Trump administration to evade responsibility for the Iran war. Nevertheless, the Republican defeat may benefit other potential candidates.

The Democratic landslide was likened to a “meteorite strike” on the political landscape, with Florida noted as the only state where Republicans managed to halt their advance.

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who ran against Trump in 2016, left the door open to a potential return, although the Democrats’ unexpected victory in his state’s governorship and Senate seat has weakened his chances.

Harris, 62, was the frontrunner for the party’s nomination before the midterms, but many within the party prefer a candidate who has never lost a presidential race.

In Pennsylvania, a key swing state, Governor Josh Shapiro, 53, easily won a new term on Tuesday. Harris had met with him in 2024 when she was considering selecting him as her vice-presidential running mate.

Other prominent names include outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom, 59, who has frequently clashed with Trump. Newsom predicted in an interview with Agence France-Presse in September that Trump’s presidency “as we know it” would end after the midterm elections.

However, Newsom, like Harris, may be viewed as part of the old guard in a party looking toward rising faces.

Among the most prominent names discussed is New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, although her candidacy could provoke divisions. In September, she said she was considering running, questioning whether a woman of Latin American descent could win the presidency in a country where two female candidates lost in 2016 and 2024.

Other potential candidates include former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Illinois Governor and billionaire J.B. Pritzker, who unveiled a detailed national platform after winning a third term on Tuesday, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly.