The Republican Defeat Was Overwhelming by All Standards

The two parties agreed on the essence of these turbulent midterm elections. President Donald Trump wanted voters to “act as if my name is on the ballot,” and Democrats welcomed this, even as his approval rating did not exceed 38 percent.

The results were disastrous for Republicans; they lost almost everywhere, even in strongholds that no one imagined would fall. Their representation in the Senate dropped from 53 seats to a maximum of 46, and they lost states such as Texas, Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa, along with Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats are expected to win approximately 258 seats, an increase of at least 43 seats. They also won at least five additional state governorships, achieving a majority for the first time in 16 years. Republicans lost all statewide elective offices in Texas, while Democrats seized at least 500 seats in state legislatures and flipped at least 11 state chambers.

These elections will remain in memory for decades. The Republican losses were massive and deeply impactful. What explains this collapse?

First, the national political climate was hostile to Republicans. Exit polls showed that about half of voters considered the cost of living a decisive factor in their vote, while another 40 percent described it as a key factor. About two-thirds of voters said Trump’s policies made the economy worse and raised prices.

But the President made matters worse. About two-thirds of voters saw that he was not setting the right priorities, and 62 percent believed he placed his personal interests above those of the country, while 90 percent considered government corruption an important factor in their choice.

Trump turned his campaign rallies into self-centered shows, dominated by bizarre accusations, insults, posturing, and excessive boasting. There was no disciplined message or vision for the future, only continuous improvisation for more than an hour at each rally. He called this “rambling,” but it was merely chaos.

Trump repeated Joe Biden’s mistake by asking voters not to believe what they saw and experienced. He described the economy as the “most successful” and America as living in a “golden age,” while voters felt their incomes were growing at a slower pace than prices. His promise to give every adult $5,000 if they voted for Republicans backfired; many considered it a disguised bribe that he knew he could not fulfill.

The losses would have been less severe had Trump spent more time performing his presidential duties and less time playing the role of campaign leader. Disciplined messages focused on the economy could have improved his standing and helped his party’s candidates.

Then came the problem of candidate quality; many were weak, especially those chosen by Trump himself. The most prominent loser was Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose Senate campaign spent approximately $500 million but lost by a margin of 12 points, becoming the first Republican candidate to lose a Senate seat from Texas since 1988.

At the end of the election, Trump appeared at an event at the Reflecting Pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial, preoccupied with talking about its renovation, improving the White House lawn, and urban changes in Washington, displaying images and drawings of his achievements. In light of this, it is not surprising that voters believed Republicans did not care about the cost of living and the economy.

True, Trump got what he personally wanted from the elections: the spotlight, the power to choose his party’s candidates in key races, and an escape from White House pressures to rallies of his loyal supporters. Yet he ended up suffering one of the worst Republican defeats in half a century, a loss that leaves his presidency politically crippled.

There will be no room to appoint a new conservative justice to the Supreme Court over the next two years, and perhaps not even during the next six. Republicans who previously feared defying the president will now distance themselves from him to protect their political futures.

Trump, for his part, will try to shirk responsibility and blame others. He has already written on the X platform: “I wasn’t even on the ballot; if I had been, we would have won by a landslide.” But that is not true.

Trump cannot so easily escape responsibility. He, his policies, and his candidate selections are what led the Republican Party to this crushing defeat.