Midterm elections: Blue wave or surprise from 'MAGA'?

The United States heads to midterm congressional elections tomorrow, a contest that places President Donald Trump and his Republican Party before a decisive political test, amid signs of Democratic gains and the possibility of the Democrats regaining a majority in the House of Representatives, alongside fierce competition in the Senate.

Amid expectations of a “blue wave” that could grant Democrats greater influence in Congress, and the possibility of a surprise from the “MAGA” camp that could reshuffle the political landscape, the election results will determine the scope of Trump’s maneuverability during the second half of his term, particularly on major issues such as the war with Iran, trade policy and tariffs, immigration, as well as his domestic agenda, which he seeks to implement before the end of his presidency.

The two parties concluded their election campaigns today with large rallies in swing states, in a final attempt to mobilize American voters and secure the contested seats. Trump personally led the Republican effort, participating in rallies in Iowa and Kansas, while Democrats held their final rallies in support of their candidates, including James Talariqo in Texas, Adam Hamilton in Kansas, and Abdulrahman Al-Sayed (Abdul) in Michigan.

Trump said yesterday that he expects to win, despite polls showing a decline in the popularity of his administration. An NBC News poll, for instance, found that 60% of Americans disapprove of his performance, amid rising living costs and the repercussions of the ongoing war with Iran, which has lasted eight months and has affected energy and fuel prices, sparking discontent among broad segments of the population.

The elections cover all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate.

Polls indicate that Democrats are now favored to regain control of the House of Representatives. The University of Virginia’s Center placed 214 seats in districts leaning toward or favoring Democrats, compared to 201 for Republicans, while 20 districts remain in the toss-up category.

A Democratic takeover of the House would give them the upper hand on federal budget matters and control over powerful committees capable of investigating corruption allegations under the Trump administration, as well as the Jeffrey Epstein case and other sensitive issues.

Democrats could also use their legislative and financial powers to attempt to constrain military operations, including the war with Iran, by monitoring the Department of Defense’s funding and invoking the War Powers Act, although the law leaves the president with some legal maneuvering room.

Texas tops the contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talariqo for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn, in a race that threatens the GOP’s historical dominance in the state.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdulrahman Al-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are competing for the seat to be vacated by Senator Gary Peters. A Fox News poll showed Abdul leading Rogers 50% to 49%.

On the eve of the elections, Democratic divisions cast a shadow over the race in Michigan, after Democratic Representative Hailey Stevens, who lost the primary to Abdul in August, announced her support for his Republican opponent.

A New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats leading in the Senate race, particularly in seven key states: Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa.

Nevertheless, Democrats are exercising caution, as polls previously underestimated the level of mobilization by the “MAGA” movement, an acronym derived from Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again.”

Control of the Senate will give Democrats greater power to block the confirmation of judicial appointments proposed by Trump, particularly nominees to the Supreme Court.

Data showed annual inflation rising to 3.7% in September, compared to 3.4% in August, while gasoline prices increased by 9.1% during the month. The energy index rose 20.4% year-on-year, with gasoline up 34.2% and food prices up 2.5%.

These pressures coincide with the repercussions of the US war on Iran, disruptions in energy supplies, and rising transportation and insurance costs, making foreign policy a prominent factor in voters’ calculations, alongside immigration, healthcare, taxes, crime, and US policy in the Middle East.

The campaigns saw massive electoral spending, nearing $11 billion on advertisements, with significant contributions from wealthy donors, including Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, who contributed nearly half a billion dollars to support Republican candidates.

Early voting set a record, as 54 million Americans cast their ballots before Election Day. Attention is now turning to tomorrow’s results, concurrent with gubernatorial elections in 36 states and various local, judicial contests, and referendums that differ from state to state.

As an indicator of the intense concerns regarding the integrity of the electoral process and the possibility of challenging the results, a federal judge in Alaska rejected a lawsuit filed by the Department of Justice, which Trump said he personally ordered. The lawsuit aimed to prevent the certification of Democrat Mary Peltola’s victory in a Senate seat if she lost to Republican Dan Sullivan, due to the presence of another candidate with the same name.

Judge Sharon Gleason deemed the measure impractical and warned it could confuse voters and suppress turnout. The Department of Justice has announced its intention to appeal.

This case exacerbates fears of a repeat of the political and legal challenges that followed the 2020 elections, particularly as Trump has consistently questioned the integrity of the electoral process during his campaign and hinted at the possibility of contesting the results.