Israel Elections: Record Arab Victory and Netanyahu Avoids Defeat

Initial results from the Israeli Knesset elections, following the completion of ballot counting yesterday except for double envelopes containing votes from soldiers and certain special categories, showed a record-breaking performance for Arab parties due to exceptional voter turnout. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided a severe defeat, retaining his position as a potential candidate to form the new government.

According to preliminary figures announced by the Central Elections Committee, Netanyahu’s camp secured 53 seats, compared to 48 for opposition parties and 19 for the two Arab lists. This leaves both sides short of the absolute majority of 61 seats required in the 120-seat Knesset.

Within Netanyahu’s camp, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties Shas and United Torah Judaism each won 7 seats, matching the result achieved by the far-right party Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. The Religious Zionism – Tzomet party won 6 seats.

In the opposition camp, the “Together” alliance, which unites former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid and attracts voters from the right and center opposed to Netanyahu, secured 12 seats. The centrist-left Democratic Party, led by Yair Golan, won 8 seats, while the right-wing party Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, won 7 seats.

Israeli media reported that votes from the military and other special categories, such as diplomats and prisoners, would be counted by today. Experts predict that these votes, estimated at 600,000, will reduce the share of the two Arab lists by a very small margin, potentially costing them at most one or two seats, meaning they would retain 18 or 17 seats. This result remains a historic achievement and an unprecedented record in the history of Arab representation in the Knesset, surpassing the previous record of 15 seats achieved in the 2015 and 2020 elections.

President Isaac Herzog is expected to task one of the Knesset members with forming a government within a week of the official announcement of results on November 4. The designated person will have 28 days to form a viable government, a period that can be extended.

With neither camp able to secure a clear majority, various scenarios for forming the next government are being considered. These include Netanyahu’s success in wooing factions from the change camp, particularly Naftali Bennett or opposition right-wing deputies, thereby securing a parliamentary majority, or forming a minority government with sufficient external support to prevent its collapse.

Conversely, Gadi Eisenkot may be able to form a government with support from diverse factions within the opposition camp, either through a broad coalition or a minority government relying on external support from the Arab lists. However, this option faces political obstacles, including Eisenkot’s commitment to forming a Zionist government, reservations within his camp about relying on Arab parties, and Avigdor Lieberman’s refusal to back a minority government supported by them.

It is not excluded that the inability to assemble a stable majority may push Netanyahu and Eisenkot to explore a national unity government formula, although reaching such an agreement would encounter deep disagreements over mandatory military service, investigations into the failures of the October 7 attack, and the management of security files.

The failure of negotiations and the holding of new elections remain a distinct possibility, with the current government continuing to manage routine affairs until the crisis is resolved. The calculations could become more complex if confrontation with Iran resumes, or if Netanyahu decides to expand Israel’s military engagement in coordination with Washington, potentially forcing his opponents into a difficult equation between continuing political confrontation and joining an emergency government dictated by security developments.

The Israeli newspaper Ynet reported that a US official stated Washington prefers the formation of a broad government in Israel “without extremists.” US President Donald Trump had previously stated that his support for Netanyahu contributed to achieving better-than-expected results.