Israel elections: Referendum on Netanyahu's fate

Israelis will head to the polls tomorrow to elect the 26th Knesset, in a vote that places Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (77) at a crossroads between consolidating his decades-long political dominance or losing power and facing heavy repercussions, foremost among them the failures of the October 7, 2023 attack, his prosecution by the International Criminal Court over allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, and his trial in three corruption cases that could lead to imprisonment.

Thirty-seven lists are competing for the 120 seats in the Knesset, with approximately 7 million Israelis eligible to vote, including more than 1.22 million Arabs. The race is led by the Yesh Atid party, headed by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, and the right-wing Likud party led by Netanyahu, while the Yamina party, which unites former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, ranks third.

Polls indicate a tight contest between the right-wing camp led by Likud and the opposition camp led by Yesh Atid, with no expectation that either will secure a majority sufficient to form a government alone. This signals complex coalition negotiations that could prolong the determination of who holds power.

Netanyahu is fighting one of his most difficult political battles, relying on more than three decades of experience, his close relationship with US President Donald Trump, and his military record in his last term, which saw wars with Hamas in Gaza, Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as his role in developments in Syria. He aims to convince voters that he is best equipped to ensure Israel’s security.

Trump renewed his support for Netanyahu yesterday, describing him as a “distinguished fighter.” In response, the Israeli Prime Minister warns that a victory for his rivals could pave the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state, raising the slogan “Either the Right or Palestine,” and portraying himself as the only one capable of continuing the confrontation with Iran, while accusing his opponents of being lenient toward it.

However, his rivals view his use of security fears and military escalation as a means to serve his political survival, especially as the repercussions of the October 7 attack continue to haunt him, having exposed widespread security and intelligence failures and sparked demands for the formation of an official, independent inquiry committee to hold officials accountable.

Netanyahu faces trial in three corruption cases involving bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, which he denies. An arrest warrant has also been issued against him by the International Criminal Court over allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. This places him under parallel tracks of domestic pressure and international prosecution, with expectations that his removal from the premiership could accelerate his trial, which began in 2020 and has been postponed repeatedly.

In contrast, Eisenkot, the former military commander and newcomer to politics, pledges to unify Israeli society and address its divisions, establish an official inquiry into the October 7 failures, and take responsibility for both successes and failures. He describes Netanyahu as unfit to remain in power, accusing him of inciting hatred and portraying his opponents as enemies of Israel.

Eisenkot proposes addressing security and economic issues and combating extremist settler attacks on Palestinians, but he is no less hardline than Netanyahu in confronting Iran. He rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state and insists on the dismantling and disarmament of Hamas.

Amid the tightness of the race, the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List could tip the balance in favor of the opposition and bring an end to Netanyahu’s rule. Both lists have prioritized addressing crime and violence, home demolitions, and budget shortfalls in the Arab community, while the Joint List has called for resuming negotiations with the Palestinian leadership and establishing a state within the 1967 borders. However, Eizenkot has expressed reservations about directly including Arab parties in his coalition.

On the ground, the Israeli military raised its alert status in anticipation of any sudden security escalation. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Israel Katz denied any intention to launch an attack on Iran before the vote, and also denied the existence of any disagreement or confrontation between Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, following new, unspecified directives related to the war.