Factors that may curb Democratic gains in the US midterm elections

The decline in approval ratings for US President Donald Trump, a Republican, along with voter concerns over rising prices and opposition to the war with Iran, has led many analysts and pollsters to predict significant gains for Democrats in the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3.

However, six analysts and experts from both parties told Reuters that several factors could hinder Democrats from converting these favorable political conditions into a landslide victory, even if the party ultimately secures some gains in Congress.

The number of competitive House races has dropped sharply over the past three decades. Partisan polarization and gerrymandering, including the manipulation of electoral district boundaries, have made a larger number of seats effectively safe for either Democrats or Republicans.

As a result, analysts estimate that only between 40 and 50 of the 435 House seats will see genuine competition this year.

Most analysts expect Democrats to regain control of the House, but with a narrow majority ranging from perhaps five to 20 seats, limiting the chances of achieving large gains like those recorded in the 2018 elections, when they won 41 seats.

Bill Galston, a former advisor to President Bill Clinton, said that even if Democrats win 25 House seats, "they would have a comfortable majority, but it would not be large."

Such a majority would give Democrats control of the House but with little room for maneuver, making it difficult to pass controversial legislation or obtain the broad mandate associated with landslide victories in previous elections.

While Democrats are favored to make gains in the 100-member Senate, securing the four seats needed for a 51-49 majority remains highly uncertain, as many of the districts they target are in states Trump won by wide margins in 2024.

David Wasserman, an election analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Democrats must make gains in states Trump won by more than ten percentage points. He added that even if there were a ten-point national shift in favor of Democrats, it would likely leave the party’s result two seats short of a majority.

Democrats also face tougher-than-expected competition in states they had hoped would be more winnable, such as Maine and Michigan.

Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, said, "Republicans are still very much in the mix in those races."

He added, "This is not what was expected if things were going smoothly for Democrats on a broad scale."

Polls show that Democratic voters are more enthusiastic than their Republican counterparts, but experts note that key demographics that tend to vote for Democrats, such as young people, Black voters, and Latinos, have historically had lower turnout in midterm elections compared to presidential elections.

Polls also show persistent skepticism among these groups toward both parties, particularly regarding the cost of living. Experts warn that Democrats may not achieve expected results if turnout among these demographics fails to meet expectations.

In the 2022 midterm elections, voters aged 50 and older accounted for nearly twice as many voters as those under 50. In recent years, older voters have tended to favor the Republican Party.

Republicans enter the final weeks of the campaign with a substantial financial advantage, although spending in key races so far has yielded mixed results.

Documents from committees and data from the Federal Election Commission show that Republicans hold a financial lead of hundreds of millions of dollars as the final weeks of the campaign approach, through national party committees and major allied political action committees. Republicans are relying on the pro-Trump America First Action political action committee, which held $416 million in cash as of early September. On October 20, Trump said he intended to spend $400 million on the Republican Party’s campaign by Election Day, mostly from the movement.

According to AdImpact, a firm that tracks advertising spending, Republicans spent $188 million more than Democrats on ads in states with competitive Senate races through the end of September.

Bush said, “Whenever one side has a significant financial advantage and the ability to pump money into races at the last minute, that can change the outcomes of close races.”

Polls have often underestimated support for the Republican Party in past election cycles. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that registered voters favor Democrats over Republicans by 47 percent to 35 percent in congressional elections.

The biggest polling misses occurred when Trump was a candidate. Although he is not on the ballot this year, Trump has urged his supporters to treat the November elections as if he were running.

Polls significantly underestimated Republican strength in the 2014 midterms, when the party won a landslide victory in the Senate. Polls in the 2022 midterms also underestimated expected Democratic performance.

Republicans are highlighting victories by left-wing Democratic Socialists of America members and progressive candidates in Democratic primary elections to portray the entire party as socialist, even though fewer than 20 of them won this year.

Galston said the criticisms may resonate with some undecided voters and affect close races.

He added, “It could be slightly effective... It might reduce Democratic leads by one or two points in close races.”