Vote in Oil-Rich Alberta on Separation from Canada

Alberta officials on Monday decided whether to proceed with organizing a binding independence referendum, as Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that a victory for the separatist camp would lead to serious uncertainty amid the trade war with the United States.

Polls indicate that less than a quarter of participants in the vote being held in the western Canadian province support independence.

However, attention has focused on voter turnout in the days leading up to the vote and on whether an enthusiastic separatist camp could defy poll results, taking advantage of the apathy of unity supporters.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, described the referendum as a “dangerous trick,” while US President Donald Trump imposes harsh tariffs and makes annexation threats, which, according to the Prime Minister, aim to break Canadian resolve.

Many Albertans have expressed anger at Justin Trudeau’s policies, Carney’s predecessor, accusing him of seeking to curb oil production in favor of his climate agenda.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told the “CanadaLand” podcast this month, “If you want me to name the person responsible for this separatist trend, I think it’s Justin Trudeau.”

She told Agence France-Presse, “It’s time to confront and say ‘enough.’”

The vote comes days after a fire at a military base in the province killed at least four soldiers and injured dozens.

Analysts have compared Smith’s approach to that of former British Prime Minister David Cameron, who sought to settle the dispute over Britain’s EU membership by holding a “Brexit” referendum.

He added, “In the following years, while that was being determined, there was immense uncertainty, investments halted, and the economy began to decline.”

The Monday referendum includes ten questions, many related to immigration, but the tenth question is the most important: “Should Alberta remain a Canadian province?” or should it take the necessary legal steps for a decisive independence referendum?

The Alberta Elections Commission stated that votes cast on the tenth question would be counted first, with results expected in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

The period preceding the referendum saw a significant increase in AI-manipulated content.

Carney called for a “decisive outcome,” but experts expressed concern that the result could cause divisions, regardless of the numbers.

Angus Bridgman, director of the Media Systems Observatory at McGill University, said, “The likely outcome of this referendum will be a group that believes the vote was stolen or, at the very least, unfair.”

Trump’s close allies have come under scrutiny, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who described Alberta in January as a “natural partner” of the United States.

Following the victory of a separatist party in Quebec’s provincial elections on October 5, billionaire tech mogul Elon Musk wrote on the X platform, “They would be in a better position” if they seceded. He added, “Alberta and Saskatchewan should also separate.”

When asked about foreign interference, Carney said on Thursday that foreign governments, including the US, should not “interfere in our elections.”