Ethiopia: Tigray Rebels Retreat Militarily; Egypt Hosts Quadrilateral African Summit

The day after their withdrawal from the Afar region, Tigray rebels evacuated Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, while the pro-Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed “Tigray Peace Forces” militia declared control over Mekelle’s main airport, as federal government forces advanced into areas held by the opposing rebels.

Violent clashes have been raging in northern Ethiopia since September 23, following attacks launched by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on the Afar and Amhara regions, during which the group seized airports in the Tigray region. These events have raised fears of a resumption of civil war and caused diplomatic tensions with Egypt and Eritrea. The attacks came days after the announcement of a broad alliance that brought the TPLF together with six other armed organizations, aiming to overthrow Abiy Ahmed’s government.

A source at a humanitarian organization told Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Friday that Tigray rebels had withdrawn from the neighboring Afar region since Thursday following a counteroffensive by federal forces.

A journalist based in Mekelle told AFP today that fighters and leaders of the TPLF “are leaving Mekelle... At this moment, government offices and police stations have been emptied of security personnel.”

The Ethiopian government accuses Eritrea of supporting the TPLF, and the two countries severed diplomatic relations on Thursday. Addis Ababa also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, prompting Cairo to retaliate in kind.

Relations between Ethiopia and Egypt were already tense due to Addis Ababa’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. In recent months, Egypt has strengthened its ties with Eritrea, which fears that landlocked Ethiopia, lacking sea access, intends to invade it and seize a port on the Red Sea.

The African Union Commission, headquartered in Ethiopia, expressed “concern over the escalating tensions” yesterday, calling on the three member states to exercise “maximum restraint” and refrain from any actions or statements that could escalate tensions.

The statement urged the three countries to resolve their differences through diplomatic channels and peaceful dialogue.

Egypt expressed surprise at the statement today. The semi-state-owned “Cairo News” channel quoted a well-informed source who described the statement as an “unfathomable attempt” to drag Egypt into an internal Ethiopian issue.

The source stressed the need “not to fall for attempts by some to divert attention from the true internal motives behind what is happening there,” adding that “such moves will not help calm the situation in a sister African state that needs the support of the African Union to exit the cycles of conflict.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi affirmed today, during the opening of the El Alamein-Africa Business Forum attended by African leaders, that the world is witnessing geopolitical tensions and that economic development cannot be built in unstable countries. He emphasized support for the nation-state and its institutions, the prioritization of peaceful solutions to conflicts and crises, and the preservation of the principle of good neighborliness.

In response, Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy, Habtemaryam Eticha, launched a campaign of criticism against Egypt today. In a post on social media, Habtemaryam stated that before criticizing Ethiopia, Egypt should explain why it built the High Aswan Dam in the 1950s without consulting or obtaining approval from Ethiopia, pointing to the displacement of Nubian communities associated with the High Dam project.

He added that Egypt’s historical record weakens its criticisms of Ethiopia, noting that the GERD, by contrast, operates under a newer regional framework, namely the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.

This comes as the Egyptian presidential spokesperson announced that Cairo will host a four-way summit today on developments in the Horn of Africa, with the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan.

Sisi discussed with the presidents of Eritrea, Somalia, and Burundi today the enhancement of stability in the Horn of Africa region, and the security of the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and the Gulf of Aden, as well as the latest developments regarding the Nile waters file.

During his reception of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Sisi affirmed Egypt’s full support for the security and stability of Eritrea, and respect for its sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, stressing Egypt’s commitment to continuing coordination and consultation with Eritrea on regional issues of common interest.

In response, according to an Egyptian statement, Afwerki confirmed that there is significant alignment of views between the two countries regarding regional developments.

Sisi also agreed with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on the importance of continuing coordination and consultation between Egypt, Somalia, and regional countries concerning issues related to the security and stability of the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and the Red Sea.

In another statement, the spokesperson said that the Egyptian and Burundian presidents, Evariste Ndayishimiye, also discussed the latest developments regarding the Nile waters file, where Sisi emphasized the importance of enhancing cooperation among Nile Basin countries based on achieving common interests and not harming any of the basin states.

Sisi warned during the meeting about the risks of unilateral measures that affect the water interests of riparian states, affirming Egypt’s rejection of using the Nile waters file to achieve political gains.