Iran Chokes on Oil, Threatens Escalation
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf renewed threats to target regional infrastructure and disrupt oil exports, while The Wall Street Journal warned that Iran’s diminished ability to choke the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and use it as leverage in talks with the United States increases the likelihood of its resorting to military escalation to strengthen its position.
With oil shipments passing through the strait and alternative routes now carrying about 80% of the regional flow levels recorded before the war, Qalibaf stated, “If Iran cannot sell its oil, others will not be able to sell theirs either, and if our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe.”
During a session of the Parliament, Qalibaf affirmed that Tehran would not back down in the face of threats, air blockades, or economic sanctions, adding that “US officials must change their stance and stop threatening to destroy the Iranian nation if they wish to reach an agreement with it.”
As reports on the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran contradict each other—with some citing frustration on both sides and others pointing to revised proposals that could bring them back to the negotiating table—Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had discussed ideas with Qatari mediators to present to the United States for implementing the Iranian regime’s seven-point plan, and expects a final response from Washington via Doha.
Speaking in New York on the sidelines of the conclusion of his participation in the UN General Assembly, Araghchi added that Iran would not “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz unless the conditions set by its Supreme Leader, the reclusive Mojtaba Khamenei, are met.
In this context, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Al-Ansari clarified that meetings held by his country between the American and Iranian sides are still ongoing, noting that Doha is conveying messages between the two sides and that there are efforts to build common ground to resolve differences and move toward a peaceful settlement.
Trump had previously denied the accuracy of reports by Axios and CNN, which claimed he had offered Tehran a deal to ease sanctions and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete concessions in its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance emphasized that Iran must improve its behavior before any deal is struck, stressing that the US administration is negotiating with it based on concrete actions on the ground, not mere promises.
Vance noted that Washington believes Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly in voice or image since his appointment as Supreme Leader, is still alive but not involved in day-to-day affairs.
Meanwhile, National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the war, which Democratic leaders describe as optional, stating that “those making decisions in Iran are hardline Shia clerics with an apocalyptic worldview,” and adding that “people like them can never possess nuclear weapons because they would use them to blackmail the world and kill people.”
In the meantime, the Iranian regime hinted at a nuclear escalation path by having 30 of its former officials issue an open letter calling for immediate legal procedures to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, arguing that continued membership is not in the country’s interest.
Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned against this step, stating that comments by an Iranian official about withdrawing from the treaty need clarification, emphasizing that Moscow does not wish for this to happen and relies on Tehran remaining a party to the agreement.
Peskov was commenting on a statement by Ali Nikzad, deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament, in which he indicated that Tehran is considering the possibility of withdrawing from the treaty. Meanwhile, the Iranian currency continued its decline, with the dollar’s price in the parallel market surpassing 250,000 tomans. While a Caspian Airlines plane was detained at Istanbul airport, with passengers and crew on board preparing for departure to Iran, due to debts amounting to 3 million euros, Baghdad announced that Iraqi Airways had resumed flights between Najaf and Iranian airports after obtaining an exemption from U.S. sanctions aimed at crippling Iranian airlines, citing “religious reasons.”
