Record El Niño heat threatens thousands of lives

Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday that the extreme heat driven by this year’s “super” El Niño could lead to up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide over the six-month period through February 2027.

In a report published by Reuters on Wednesday, the lab stated that the number of extreme heat days is likely to increase by 44 percent compared with normal years. It noted that the countries most likely to experience the highest number of additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 are Nigeria, with an estimated 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with approximately 19,300 deaths, and then Sudan with 17,600 deaths.

The lab added that the heatwave affecting the African Sahel region, including Niger and Chad, as well as Nigeria and Sudan, is likely to cause 66,800 additional deaths during the six-month period. Researchers projected that the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia would collectively experience 19,400 additional deaths. They noted that excess deaths could rise further if El Niño extends into 2027, when key areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, would be at risk during the summer months.

The lab described this year’s El Niño as a “message from the future,” indicating the temperatures that will become normal within just a few decades. It emphasized that emergency response efforts should be directed toward the highest-priority regions to reduce heat-related deaths in the coming months.