Hezbollah bets on political gains from any regional escalation

Lebanon is closely monitoring regional developments as the specter of a wide-scale regional war resurfaces, amid continued Iranian escalation in the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

Observers note that the prevailing state of “neither war nor peace” has become a weapon against the parties that previously bet on the factor of time working in their favor. The escalation in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb has upended existing agreements, at a time when there are no serious indications of dialogues that could lead to new understandings.

This may push the three main parties in the conflict toward further escalation. Iran may view gradual escalation as a path to reaching an understanding, rather than waiting for a moment of greater explosion. As for Trump, his goal in escalating may be to raise oil prices before seeking to lower them later, which could impact the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to exploit the escalation in the context of the Israeli legislative elections.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah, which is allied with Tehran, is betting that any regional changes will reflect on the domestic situation, potentially contributing to changing Nawaf Salam’s government, which received its third vote of confidence from the Parliament a few days ago and continues to enjoy significant international and regional support.

The popular movements in front of the Supreme Council of the Shia Muslim Community, which take place every Tuesday and are not officially adopted by Hezbollah, though it is practically behind them, are read as a gradual escalation that can later be leveraged in protests pressuring for a ministerial reshuffle or a change of government.

While Hezbollah is engaged in these calculations, Israel is proceeding with its military operations in southern Lebanon, amid expectations of further escalation, especially after the expiration of the two-week deadline reportedly granted by Israel to Lebanon, which included de-escalation in exchange for the army’s movement in the city of Nabatieh and the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s weapons from there.

Field data indicates that Israel is massing more military forces toward Kafr Tibnit and the heights of Ali al-Taher, which may be linked to movement toward new areas, amid fears that Netanyahu is determined to control the city of Nabatieh before the election date, to boost his chances and prospects in the elections.

Currently, Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are proceeding on four axes. The first is in the eastern sector, specifically in the vicinity of Nabatieh up to Deir Mimas, where Israel is seeking to annex the area to the “Yellow Line,” after requesting the Lebanese army to vacate the military post it established at the entrance to the town.

The second axis is located in the western sector, specifically from al-Mansouri toward Wadi Majdal Zoun and Wadi Zibqin, where Israelis believe there are Hezbollah warehouses and tunnels that they are working to destroy, noting that control of these areas allows Israel to uncover the road leading to the city of Tyre.

The third axis is concentrated in the central sector, where Israel is moving in the vicinity of the towns of Shqra and Hadatha in an attempt to control the valleys of al-Hajjar and al-Salouqi. It is expected that Israel will intensify its operations there, especially after an explosive device detonated against an Israeli vehicle in Wadi al-Hajjar.

The fourth development is represented by Israel intensifying its movements in Mount Hermon, through carrying out demolition and road-clearing operations, and possibly opening new roads, while military reinforcements are being observed entering the area. These movements may be linked to expanding control over more territory in Syria, or using the Mount Hermon axis and the Lebanese-Syrian border to advance toward the Western Bekaa, in an Israeli attempt to separate the Bekaa from the south and uncover Hezbollah’s movements in the Western Bekaa, Mount Rayhan, and the Tuffah region.