Bri retains his initiative to withdraw weapons, and the "Hezbollah equation" blocks the horizon of a solution
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has reiterated his initiative, which requires US sponsorship and guarantees, personally from President Donald Trump. The proposal stipulates Israel’s withdrawal to the international borders and a complete halt to military operations in exchange for a guarantee of Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River and the disarmament of its weapons. Berri made these remarks before a delegation from the American Task Force, a Lebanese lobbying group operating in Washington, which met with various officials and emphasized the necessity of disarming the party.
Amid Lebanese anticipation of the outcomes of any international or regional developments, and pending the scheduling of the next round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations in the Italian capital, as well as the results of President Joseph Aoun’s visit to Rome—where he met with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Leo XIII today—all prospects for resolving the current situation appear blocked. This is particularly true given the new equation presented by Hezbollah, which refuses to allow the fall of the “Ali al-Tahr” front and has raised the possibility of Iran intervening to support it, alongside its refusal to hand over weapons to the Lebanese Army.
On the other hand, Israel insists on continuing its military operation and seeks to convince the Americans to grant a green light to expand the operation and control the Ali al-Tahr hill and other hills. If it fails to obtain such approval, it will continue its siege and slow encroachment, without overlooking the conflict trajectory between Washington and Tehran. Should that conflict reignite, it would inevitably impact the Lebanese front and other regional fronts. There is a prevailing conviction that a state of “no war, no peace” will persist for a long time, unless surprises occur that lead to an escalation and expansion of the war.
The core demand Israel wishes to see proposed in Lebanon is the “disarmament of the party,” a position it shares with the United States. Lebanese officials have heard this from multiple American figures who recently visited Beirut. Even when Lebanon raised the issue of implementing the Framework Agreement and the experimental zones, as well as Israeli withdrawal, these matters were consistently linked to disarmament. Israel maintains that it cannot withdraw from any point without verifying the removal of weapons from the designated experimental zone, which includes Western Zouitar, Faroun, Al-Ghandourieh, Qlaouieh, and Burj Qlaouieh.
Some of the technical discussions focused on the entry and deployment of the Lebanese Army, clearing the area of war debris, and removing Hezbollah’s weapons from identified warehouses or sites. Subsequently, searches would be conducted in private properties or homes for weapons, followed by the intervention of a verification mechanism to ensure the disarmament process is completed before moving to another area. This comes at a time when the verification mechanism remains under negotiation, as the international body responsible for overseeing it has not yet been determined.
