The American Force and Iranian Arrogance
We had previously read the proposal put forward by Iran’s former Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, which posited that the way to resolve the dilemma lay in:
• Reviving the nuclear deal, or constructing a modified version of it, predicated on the lifting of sanctions and the establishment of a regional dialogue forum in the Gulf to ensure freedom of navigation and the security of supply lines, without external military interference.
• Achieving a balance between deterrence and diplomacy, based on the “step-for-step” principle, whereby Washington would ease its “maximum pressure” policy and cease military threats, in exchange for Tehran providing additional, transparent guarantees. However, these proposals, despite their formal and resonant diplomacy, continue to circulate the problem rather than solve it; they ignore Tehran’s deliberate policy of “brinkmanship,” turn a blind eye to its use of maritime chokepoints as strategic leverage, and overlook its development of a nuclear program outside the bounds of genuine deterrence.
Betting on good intentions and easing pressure on the Iranian regime has brought the region nothing but further procrastination and intensified enrichment activities, alongside threats to international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab. To compel Tehran to abandon its political obduracy and submit to a complete cessation of its threats, it is necessary to move beyond these partial solutions and focus on more resolute and effective strategies that cut off its nuclear ambitions and enforce the protection of vital waterways through the force of international law and direct deterrence.
The Javad Zarif project, despite attempts to present it to the world as a reasonable peace initiative involving an exchange of interests between Iran and the United States, remains incomplete; it fails to allay the fears and concerns of Middle Eastern states regarding Iranian threats, as it does not address solutions for attacks by Iran-backed armed factions operating in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, nor does it explain how Tehran might abandon its support for Hamas.
Should circumstances lead the United States and Israel to return to the option of military confrontation with Iran, the contest between American power and Iranian obduracy would become a game of “endurance,” in which Washington bets on exhausting the elements that sustain the Iranian regime’s hold on power. This could involve arming armed factions that breach its borders from all directions, or the United States and Israel working to support and stimulate certain components within Iran to launch anti-regime uprisings that undermine its fragile internal stability, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) executing a coup to seize power. In such a scenario, the United States might target Iranian infrastructure and military assets, leveraging its clear military superiority.
Given the latest news regarding an understanding between the two sides to postpone military confrontation, and Iran’s acquiescence to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to navigation, it appears matters have taken this turn. Therefore, I believe that recently, the United States has exploited its naval, air, and land forces to exert pressure by threatening control over the Iranian coastline facing the Strait of Hormuz, including its cities, ports, warships, boats, mines, missiles, and gas, oil, and supply depots. This is viewed as a rapid solution dictated by the political, economic, and electoral circumstances of both the United States and Israel, prompting Iran to halt its procrastination in negotiations and settle for the preliminary understandings reached with mediators, albeit with modifications covering commercial, military, nuclear, and ballistic aspects, in order to preserve its infrastructure.
At that point, we can only say: May God have mercy on the suffering of the region’s peoples and leaders, after enduring such prolonged hardship, in their quest to protect their interests through a peaceful and conscious approach that made others aware of its limits and deterred them from crossing them.
