Global Fuel Shortage Expected to Continue Until Mid-2027

Morgan Stanley has forecast that a global fuel shortage will persist until mid-2027, even if disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East subside, as refineries move to carry out extensive maintenance that will constrain supply. The bank expects planned maintenance-related refinery downtime to rise by approximately 3.4 million barrels per day by the second quarter of next year, equivalent to two and a half times the usual levels.

The bank noted that the anticipated volume of shutdowns exceeds current reductions in refinery operations in the Middle East and Russia, suggesting that refining activity is unlikely to see a significant recovery by the second quarter of 2027.

Global markets are facing a growing diesel supply shortage, with fuel exports from the Middle East and Russia declining due to production disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure. The International Energy Agency has warned that the recovery of Russian refinery output will remain limited amid escalating Ukrainian attacks on refining facilities.