Ministry of Information Reviews Fitch Forecasts: 23.8 Million Tourists to Egypt and $21.2 Billion in Tourism Revenue by 2030
Cairo – Ahmed Sabri
The Center for Information and Decision Support at the Council of Ministers reviewed the latest report issued by BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, on the outlook for Egypt’s tourism sector. The report projects continued growth in inbound tourist numbers and tourism revenues through 2030, driven by the expansion of hotel capacity, infrastructure development, the opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum, and efforts to diversify tourism markets and streamline travel procedures.
The report indicates that inbound tourist numbers to Egypt are expected to rise by 6.3% in 2026, reaching approximately 20.19 million tourists, compared with around 19 million in 2025. This upward trend is projected to continue, reaching 23.78 million tourists by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.6%.
Regarding tourism revenues, the report forecasts an increase from $18.58 billion in 2026 to $21.15 billion by 2030, underscoring the sector’s continued importance as a primary source of foreign currency and its role in supporting economic activity and job creation.
The report also projects a 20.2% year-on-year growth in the total gross value added of the accommodation and food services sector in 2026, reaching approximately EGP 508.4 billion. This figure is expected to rise further to around EGP 757.9 billion by 2030, according to the report’s estimates.
The report highlights the pivotal role of the Grand Egyptian Museum in enhancing the appeal of Egypt as a tourist destination. It notes that the museum’s opening in November 2025 has been a significant addition to Egypt’s tourism and cultural assets, strengthening its presence on the global tourism map. According to figures cited in the report, the museum receives approximately 15,000 visitors daily, with annual visitor numbers expected to reach around 5 million.
The report points out that the museum offers opportunities to boost cultural tourism and encourage visitors to extend their stays by linking visits to the museum with other archaeological and tourist sites, thereby increasing tourism spending and maximizing economic returns.
In terms of capacity, the report highlights that Egypt accounts for approximately 37.1% of the total hotel rooms under development in Africa, through 185 hotels comprising more than 45,900 rooms. This is part of broader efforts to increase hotel capacity to between 484,000 and 500,000 rooms in the coming years.
The report explains that hotel expansion is a key requirement for accommodating the expected increase in tourist numbers, particularly during peak seasons, alongside the importance of improving service quality and enhancing the competitiveness of Egypt as a tourist destination.
The report also discusses the role of investments in developing tourist destinations and infrastructure, notably the Ras El-Hekma and New Alamein projects, as well as the development of airports, transport networks, and high-speed rail, all of which contribute to improving the tourist experience and facilitating movement between various tourist destinations.
It also underscores the importance of digital transformation in streamlining travel procedures, noting the development of an e-visa system serving 118 nationalities, which supports easier access to Egypt as a tourist destination.
On the source markets front, the report expects European markets to continue leading inbound flows to Egypt, with tourist numbers from these markets rising from approximately 10.18 million in 2026 to 11.63 million by 2030.
It also projects that inbound tourist numbers from the Middle East will reach approximately 3.92 million in 2026, alongside around 677,000 tourists from the United States.
The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying tourism markets and expanding efforts to target promising markets, particularly the Chinese market, in line with initiatives aimed at attracting one million Chinese tourists. This is expected to broaden the base of tourism demand and reduce reliance on traditional markets.
Conversely, the report identifies a set of challenges that could affect the expected pace of growth, most notably regional geopolitical tensions, aviation disruptions, and rising aviation fuel prices, which may lead to higher travel costs and impact tourism demand.
It also notes that keeping pace with the expected increase in tourist numbers requires expanding hotel capacity, developing the skills of hospitality sector workers, and improving service quality to ensure the sustained competitiveness of Egypt as a tourist destination and enhance visitor satisfaction.
The report’s forecasts indicate that the economic opportunity for Egypt’s tourism sector extends beyond simply increasing tourist numbers; it also involves maximizing the return from each tourist by raising average spending and length of stay, diversifying tourism products, and strengthening integration between tourism and other economic sectors.
In this context, the report highlights the expansion of hotel investments, the development of human capital, the improvement of service quality, and the diversification of source markets as key factors for leveraging the expected growth and converting increased tourism flows into greater economic value, while accounting for risks associated with regional and international developments.
