Researchers develop tool to estimate chances of natural conception without treatment

Researchers at the University of Aberdeen, in collaboration with the National Health Service (NHS) in Grampian, have developed a new tool to help couples experiencing fertility problems estimate their chances of conceiving naturally. This development could change how doctors and patients approach treatment decisions. A study found that approximately 13% of these couples achieved a natural pregnancy within one year of diagnosis, with the pregnancies resulting in live births.

Published in the journal *Human Reproduction Open*, the tool is the first of its kind to estimate the likelihood of natural conception among couples with various types of fertility issues, not just those for whom doctors have not identified a clear cause of infertility. By analyzing data from 7,086 couples, researchers found that the duration of fertility problems, the woman’s advanced age, and fallopian tube issues were among the key factors reducing the chances of natural conception. Conversely, the chances were higher for couples who had previously conceived or for whom no clear cause for their fertility problem had been identified.

Dr. Natalie Cameron, who led the research, stated that an infertility diagnosis does not necessarily mean natural conception is impossible. She noted that some couples may seek treatment prematurely, while the new tool helps compare the benefits of treatment against the chances of conceiving without it.

Gwenda Burns, Chief Executive of the Fertility Alliance, welcomed the tool, emphasizing that evidence-based information helps patients understand their options, particularly given that fertility treatment decisions carry significant emotional, physical, and financial implications.

Researchers hope the tool will help identify couples who may benefit from early treatment while avoiding unnecessary intervention when it is not required.