After 2026 Setbacks, OPEC Bets on Oil Demand Surge Next Year

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, broadening its bet on a strong consumption recovery following a year marked by weak growth and energy market disruptions.

The new estimates are about 260,000 barrels per day higher than OPEC’s July projections, moving the organization in the exact opposite direction from its revisions for 2026, during which it lowered its demand growth forecast to around 600,000 barrels per day.

Consequently, the organization expects demand growth in 2027 to be more than three times the increase anticipated for the current year, an exceptional gap that reveals the core of OPEC’s market outlook: the shock weighing on consumption in 2026 is temporary, and it will be followed by a strong rebound once economic conditions improve and disruptions affecting trade and fuel consumption subside.

Once again, the bulk of the increase will come from outside advanced economies. OPEC expects demand in non-OECD countries to grow by approximately 1.8 million barrels per day in 2027, accounting for more than four-fifths of the global increase, while OECD countries are expected to add around 300,000 barrels per day.

However, the striking difference compared to 2026 is the return of advanced economies themselves to growth. After an expected decline of about 40,000 barrels per day this year, OPEC anticipates that demand within OECD countries will shift to an increase of approximately 300,000 barrels per day next year.

This makes the 2027 bet broader than merely the continuation of Asia’s growth, as it assumes a consumption recovery on both sides of the global economy simultaneously.

The comparison between the two years is the most striking element of the report. After a series of downward revisions, OPEC now expects demand to increase by only about 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, but sees a jump of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in 2027. The difference between the two growth rates is thus around 1.6 million barrels per day.

This shift places an important assumption within the organization’s forecasts: a portion of the demand lost or deferred in 2026 will return the following year.

It also means that the persistence of high oil prices or trade route disruptions for longer than expected represents one of the most significant risks to the 2027 scenario.

Current prices still carry a substantial geopolitical premium. Brent crude reached approximately $89.81 per barrel on August 12, compared to $83.30 at the time of the July report issuance on the 13th of last month, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $84.08 from $78.14.