KOC: Kuwaiti crude oil price at $81.9 per barrel in July

The Al-Shal Weekly Economic Report stated that the average price of a barrel of Kuwaiti crude oil for last July reached approximately $81.9, which is about $24.9 higher per barrel, or roughly 43.6%, above the new assumed price in the current budget, estimated at $57 per barrel.

The report noted that the fiscal year 2025/2026, which ended at the end of last March, saw an average price for a barrel of Kuwaiti crude oil of approximately $72.2. The average price per barrel in July 2026 was higher by about 13.4% compared to the average price for the previous fiscal year, while remaining approximately $8.6 per barrel below the current budget’s break-even price of $90.5.

Under the heading “Comparative Performance of Selected Financial Markets – July 2026,” the Al-Shal report stated that the performance of the sample markets in July was neutral, with indices of seven markets gaining, while those of seven other markets lost ground, including five Gulf markets, compared to their levels at the end of June. When compared to their levels at the end of 2025, the markets were also evenly split, with seven gaining markets and seven losing markets.

It added: “The UK market was the biggest gainer in July, with its index rising by 3.5%, bringing its year-to-date gains to 9.4%, placing it third among gaining markets. It was followed by the German market with gains of 2.5%, and then the Indian market with a rise of 2.1%, although it remained the biggest loser year-to-date, having lost 8.4%. The French market came in fourth with gains of 1.3%, followed by the Abu Dhabi market with a rise of 0.8%, making it the least losing market year-to-date with a decline of 1.1%.”

On another note, Al-Shal covered the performance of the Kuwait Stock Exchange, stating that its general index gained approximately 0.6% during July, reducing its year-to-date losses to 1.7%. The US Dow Jones index recorded the smallest gains in July, rising by 0.3%.

On the other side, the Japanese market topped the list of losers, with its index losing approximately 8.1%, bringing its year-to-date gains down to 27.9%, while retaining its position as the biggest gainer, surpassing the Muscat Stock Exchange, the second-biggest gainer year-to-date, which posted gains of 24.4%. The Chinese market followed with losses of 6.4%, moving into negative territory with year-to-date losses of approximately 3.4%.

The Bahrain Stock Exchange recorded losses of 4.2%, followed by the Qatar Stock Exchange with a decline of 3.1%, remaining the second-biggest loser year-to-date, with its index losing approximately 7.8%. Both the Dubai market and the Muscat Stock Exchange recorded equal monthly losses of approximately 2.7%. The Saudi market was the least loser during July, after its index fell by 1.9%, ending the first seven months of the current year with the lowest gains among the sample markets, at 0.9%.

The performance of the sample markets in July was influenced by two opposing factors. One was positive, reflecting analysts’ consensus on the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The other was negative, driven by the heat of geopolitical events in the region following the resumption of armed hostilities. Consequently, the outcome was neutral, with half of the sample markets gaining and the other half losing. Five of the seven losing markets were Gulf markets affected by these hostilities.

Following the US President’s decision to halt a major attack on Iran, the trajectory of the sample markets’ performance in August will depend on the durability of the de-escalation decision, or even further improvements, such as a return to the negotiating table. Therefore, we project a collectively positive performance for the sample markets if this occurs, and the opposite if de-escalation fails.

Regarding the weekly performance of the Kuwait Stock Exchange, the Al-Shal report indicated that it was mixed, with the indices for the value and quantity of traded shares declining, while the indices for the number of executed trades and the general index value (Al-Shal Index) rose.

The Al-Shal Index (value index) reading at the close of trading last Thursday stood at approximately 721.5 points, an increase of 9.7 points, or 1.4%, compared to the previous week’s close. However, it remained lower by approximately 16.1 points, or 2.2%, compared to the close at the end of 2025.