IMF welcomes "accelerated recovery" of the Syrian economy, forecasts growth rates up to 10%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) welcomed the “accelerating recovery” of the Syrian economy, following a visit by its mission to the country in late July aimed at “assessing the economic situation.” IMF Mission Chief to Syria Ron van Rooden stated, “The Syrian economy’s recovery is accelerating,” pointing specifically to “improved consumer and investor confidence following political changes, the return of approximately 1.5 million refugees, and Syria’s gradual reintegration into the regional and global economies.” He added, “Growth rates are projected to exceed 10 percent in 2026.”

According to the IMF, this upturn is driven by a strong recovery in the agricultural sector, expanded hydrocarbon production, improved electricity supplies, continued growth in the trade and services sectors, and the ongoing return of refugees. However, not all indicators are positive; inflation, which had slowed significantly during 2025, “rose substantially in 2026.”

Van Rooden attributed this increase to “higher import prices, particularly for fuel and foodstuffs, due to the regional conflict, as well as improved domestic demand.” He also highlighted other factors, “including increases in public sector wages. Although these increases started from very low levels, they contribute to improving living standards.”

The IMF noted a “notable improvement” in public finance performance, citing a “limited surplus” in the 2025 budget and projecting “a significant rise in revenues in 2026, with tax and customs revenues already seeing substantial increases in the first half of the year.”

Challenges remain significant, particularly due to the “scale of humanitarian and development needs,” which require “strong and rapid international financial support.” Notably, the Syrian government has not yet requested an assistance program from the IMF. Any such request would be conditional on the external debt of the country being rescheduled, possibly through restructuring.

In contrast, the World Bank resumed its assistance programs in Syria about a year ago.